Two days ago we pointed out something surprising: according to Ladbrokes’ head of political betting, Matthew Shaddick, the key catalyst that moved bookie odds on Monday morning, the first day after the suspended campaign in the aftermath of Jo Cox murder was resumed, “we took a £25,000 bet on Remain this morning which helped move the odds in their direction.” This in turn unleashed a global asset surge, as markets rebounded on expectations the Leave campaign was losing momentum, even as actual polls – still neck and neck – did not validate such an observation.
I recently sat down with Scott Horton on the The Scott Horton Show. If you want to get the real scoop on U.S. foreign policy, you must listen to his podcast. It’s simply the best there is on this topic. It’s one of the very few I always listen to.
Scott and I had an in-depth discussion on the U.S. government’s latest schemes… the War on Cash and negative interest rates.
I think you’ll find our conversation below informative and entertaining.
Gold and silver have been on the forefront of financial news this year for their solid performance this year and deservedly so. However, we are only in the beginning innings of the next great leg higher in gold and silver and here are three charts to clearly illustrate this point.
Despite the extremely solid performance of gold and silver YTD, a quick glance at the multi-year USD gold and silver charts below clearly illustrate that gold and silver prices have not yet even recovered with a weekly close that exceeds the highs of 2015. Thus far, we should only interpret the rises in gold, silver and the PM mining shares as the first phase of RECOVERY in prices that will be followed by much greater rises in prices of all these assets as global Central Bankers continue to destroy the purchasing power of all digital and paper fiat currencies worldwide.
Gold stocks need very specific conditions in order to perform well. The last time most of these conditions were present was during the Great Depression. However, conditions are currently shaping up to be even more ideal.
The performance of the Dow is one example of conditions that heavily influences how gold stocks fair.Historically, gold stocks had some of the best rallies after significant Dow peaks. This was true for the 1929 and 1973 major Dow peaks.
Given the above, I would make sense to say that the 2015 Dow peak is an important signal for significantly higher gold stock prices over the coming years. Below, is a long-term chart of the Barron’s Gold Mining Index (BGMI) that illustrates some of the conditions ideal for a gold stocks rally:
Gold fell again today to its lowest in a week despite continuing uncertainty about the outcome of the Brexit referendum. This is contributing to very significant high net worth and institutional demand in recent days, particularly in the UK, which is leading to “panic” and “supply issues” in the interbank gold market.
Supply issues which respected gold analysts and ourselves have warned in recent years were taking place, would deepen and would ultimately lead to a reset of gold prices to much higher levels.
Identity theft is starting to catch up to major corporations that haven’t done enough to protect sensitive customer data.
Morgan Stanley just coughed up a $1 million fine to the SEC because the company did not have enough security in place to prevent a former advisor from stealing client data…
“The settlement resolves allegations related to Galen Marsh’s unauthorized transfers from 2011 to 2014 of data from about 730,000 accounts to his home computer in New Jersey, some of which was hacked by third parties and offered for sale online,” Trust Advisor reports.
This past week saw some very exciting movement in the metals. There was something for the bulls and the bears alike. But, for now, the bulls still have the edge, at least in my humble opinion. Yet, the price action and sentiment have many looking much lower now, and has scared many of those that were quite bullish coming into the week.
But, for anyone who has experience trading metals, you know that price movements in this complex are often quite violent. And, if you are not mentally prepared for such violent moves, which often occur at Fibonacci turning points, then you have no business playing in this arena. It simply has to be accepted, since the metals are one of the most emotional trades out there.
Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, it was nice to return home yesterday, and find that the A/C was fixed and we were back in the cool zone! Crosby and Nash greet me this morning with their song to save the whales: Wind on the Water… I saw these two iconic rock performers at the Mississippi River Festival many years ago, with seats in the first 5 rows! And the first two games in Chicago at historic Wrigley Field for my Beloved Cardinals have gone their way, one more today, and it’s a day game! We’re all just waiting for the results of the BREXIT vote.. I heard a different take on this yesterday.. Instead of BREXIT, we could end up with BREMAIN! HA!
Those people who do not avidly track global economic events may be a bit confused by the growing tensions surrounding the U.K. referendum to exit the European Union, otherwise known as the “Brexit.” Or, they are completely indifferent. Unfortunately, the potential fallout surrounding the event could very well affect the entire world, but perhaps not in the manner the mainstream media and international financiers would have us believe…
I would point out that under normal global economic conditions, the Brexit really shouldn’t matter much to anyone outside of the U.K. If the EU was fiscally stable, if its banks were solvent and its national debts well in hand, if the EU was actually a practical and successful supranational body, then the damage done by a British vote to leave the union would be minimal.
US policymakers should allow inflation to rise above official targets, the International Monetary Fund has recommended, as it warned that the risks of deflation still loom over the world’s largest economy.
The fund has said that the Federal Reserve should “accept some modest, temporary overshooting” of its inflation goal, allowing price growth to exceed 2pc for a period.
IMF staff said that this would “provide valuable insurance against the risk of disinflation”, allowing price growth to wane, and fall back towards negative territory. The fund said that “the likelihood and severity” of this risk could force the Fed to retrace its steps in turn, and cut its interest rates back to zero.
Sadly, there is a small subset of the population that enjoys abusing other people. These people tend to gravitate toward places where you can obtain power and influence, especially over those who are most-vulnerable. Thus you see them show up as cops, politicians and…. all through the United Nations.
The UN whistleblower who exposed the sexual abuse of children by peacekeepers in Central African Republic has been completely exonerated after an internal investigation.
Anders Kompass, the director of field operations for the office of the high commissioner for human rights in Geneva, was suspended and faced dismissal after he passed confidential documents detailing the abuse of children by French troops in CAR to the authorities in Paris because of the UN’s failure to stop the exploitation.
For those who don’t remember this is the guy who disclosed a report that was intended to be buried documenting not just “exploitation” of women and (especially children) but actual******and forcible sodomy as well.
The paper claims the upper middle class has grown from 12.9% of the population in 1979 to 29.4% in 2014–in essence, the shrinkage of the “middle class” is not just from households dropping down the ladder but millions of households climbing up to the upper middle class.
Gold expert Nick Barisheff wrote a book titled “$10,000 Gold” in 2013. According to Barisheff, that number is even more possible today. Barisheff contends, “It’s hard to believe when I wrote the book three years ago, and I talked about the issues that would lead to $10,000 gold are still there and have gotten much worse. None of the issues have been solved, and now we are in multiple bubbles, a lot of them surrounding debt, and it keeps growing all over the world, and that’s the main correlation to the price of gold.”
On gold versus other investments such as bonds, Barisheff contends, “We can’t get anything close to normalized interest rates. . . . You have a considerable amount of sovereign bonds with negative interest rates. What can they do, go more negative? This is one of the long term driving factors. There isn’t the argument of gold doesn’t have a yield, and therefore isn’t worthwhile as an investment. Well, many bonds don’t have a yield either, and corporate bonds that do have yield are extremely high risk. I think they have nowhere to go but down (in value).”
Europe’s banks are still buying more of their home governments’ bonds, even though the enormous exposures between states and financial institutions risk re-starting the so-called ‘doom loop’ that damaged the Greek economy so badly.
Banks have doubled their holdings of their own states’ debt since 2008, according to Standard and Poor’s, despite plans over the past five years to cut back on the exposures.
When banks invest heavily in one government’s debt, the banks become dependent on the government’s good performance, and the governments depend on the banks purchasing the debt.
It had been a peaceful night in Europe where all the women are strong, the men are good looking, and the children are above average. Martin woke up on his EU regulated bed and looked through his EU regulated window. This night, Martin had slept like a baby thanks to the 109 EU regulations concerning pillows, the 5 EU regulations concerning pillow cases, and the 50 EU laws regulating duvets and sheets. Martin went to brush his teeth with his toothbrush regulated by 31 EU laws.
After that, our EU-regulated man went to his EU regulated kitchen to grab a Class 1 EU regulated apple. For the benefit of society, the EU had defined what a “class 1” fruit actually is: to class a “Red Variety” apple as “class 1” then 50% of its surface must be red. To class a “Mixed red coloring variety” of apple as a “class 1” apple 33% of its surface must be red, and so it goes for the 3 quality classes and 287 individually named apple varieties. Martin ate fruits and vegetables because the government told him it is the right thing to do. He switched the TV on and listened to the “eat five fruits and vegetables” government ad with attention.
Gold exports from Switzerland totaled 177.3 mt in May, up 20% from 147.8 mt reported in April, and the highest level since December, Swiss federal customs data showed Tuesday.
The figure is 69% higher than 105.1 mt reported a year earlier.
Exports to China were 36% higher on the month at 19 mt in May, while exports to Hong Kong were 2.5-times as large at 24 mt.
Exports to the US were also up on the month, to 18.9 mt in May, from just 2.3 mt in April.
If the U.K. decides in Thursday’s referendum to leave the European Union, it would shake the continent to its political foundations. Even if it stays, the bloc may never be the same.
A decision to leave, which would be a first by a member nation, would deepen the crisis facing a continent already struggling with economic weakness, debt problems, large-scale migration and growing geopolitical instability to its south and east.
First it was The Fed’s Janet Yellen coming “as close to capitulation on monetary policy’s lack of efficacy,” and now The Bank of Japan’s Kuroda appears to have had an epiphany. In a stream of truth-filled consciousness unheard of for central planners, the governor admitted, among other things, that “monetary policy doesn’t always turn out as expected,” and that “many economists don’t think financial markets always right,” implying, of course, that he and his brethren know better. It appears that as central bank credibility collapses, so the central bankers themselves are having their own ‘Greenspan’-moment when their life’s work is finally proven entirely pointless.
When Brexit votes are tallied on Thursday, it will round out a week of pseudo-events that has already featured Congressional testimony from the Fed’s obfuscator-in-chief, Janet Yellen, the most powerful banker in the universe. We should be thankful there are no payroll numbers due out Friday to add to all of the made-up drama, since one more headline could generate a rogue wave capable of capsizing the global financial system. Rick’s Picks has contrived to tune out most of the news these days, especially Trump-o-mania and the latest polls. They make keeping up with the Kardashians seem exciting in comparison. Pity the poor schmucks who have to write about such stuff every day. What will they dredge up when the dog days of summer are upon us?
Apparently Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen didn’t get the memo but helicopter money is already at work in the U.S.
Last week, Yellen conceded that the Fed may have to “legitimately consider” resorting to unconventional measures in the event of a severe economic downturn.
But Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank’s chief international economist, argues that the Fed has been employing measures similar to helicopter money via its remittances to the Treasury.
“The Fed in 2015 paid the U.S. Treasury $117 billion and dividing that by the total number of households (125 million) shows that the Fed is already giving money to U.S. consumers,” he said in a note on Tuesday.
China wants to do what the U.S. has done, which is to remain on a paper currency standard but make that currency important enough in world finance and trade to give China leverage over the behavior of other countries.
The best way to do that is to increase its voting power at the IMF and have the yuan included in the IMF basket for determining the value of the special drawing right. Getting those two things requires the approval of the United States because the U.S. has veto power over important changes at the IMF. The U.S. can stand in the way of Chinese ambitions.
China accomplished that last November when the IMF agreed to include the yuan in its basket of currencies.
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