Just as we warned was probable, The PBOC sent a message loud and clear to the newly hawkish Fed following today’s surge in the dollar after the minutes were released. With the 2nd biggest daily devaluation since the August collapse, China pushed the Yuan fix against the USD down to its lowest since early February – barely above the January lows. As we warned earlier, the China-Panic trade looms loud now as turmoil appears all that is left to stop The Fed unleashing another round of liquidity-suckiong rate hikes sooner than the market wants.
I tuned out the Fed’s annoying blather long ago rather than get sucked into remotely caring about something as stupid as quantitative easing. Over the years, I’ve posed the rhetorical question here many times: When will the Fed raise rates? My answer was always the same: “Never!” I batted 1.000 with this prediction for nearly a decade — until the Fed actually raised the federal funds rate by a token 25 basis points last December. Now they are talking about doing it again in June but I somehow can’t convince myself they’re serious.
Yes, I understand that it’s all just a charade intended to fool us into thinking that it is inflation we should be worried about, not the deflationary black hole into which the global financial system, led by Japan and Europe, has been slipping. But does anyone actually believe that 25 more basis points, even if it happens, is going to tighten much of anything? If so, they must be among the few Americans outside of the prison system who do not receive at least two or three teasers offers per week to borrow money on credit cards for 12 to 18 months at 3% or less.
Prepare to be shocked at just how little most Americans know about even the most basic financial concepts. No wonder we devote the entire month of April to boning up on financial literacy.
To get an understanding of how woefully uneducated the masses are when it comes to money, economists from Wharton and George Washington University have been asking three basic financial questions — very basic — for years, and the results have been rather startling.
Before you try your hand at it, here’s how others have fared: According to a working paper published last year, only half of Americans over the age of 50 answered at least two of the three questions correctly. Less than a third got them all right.
DUBLIN – The Dow dropped 180 points yesterday – or about 1%.
And another clever billionaire says he is looking elsewhere for profits. Reuters:
Activist investor Carl Icahn on Monday said there was a chance the stock market could suffer a big decline, saying valuations are rich and earnings at many companies are fueled more by low borrowing costs than management’s efforts to boost results.
“I am very cautious on equities today. This market could easily have a big drop,” Icahn said.
Yes, dear reader, the smart money is getting out of U.S. stocks. And here’s our old friend Rob Marstrand explaining why:
Japan’s GDP showing today finally provided signs of life when the expected number of 0.1% was put to shame with a 0.4% print. However, it was only enough to rescue the Nikkei from the selling but did help to provide the days highs. By close of business the index had drifted back only to close the day almost unchanged. Neither the Hang Seng nor the Shanghai benefited from Japans positive sentiment and both closed a little over 1% lower. The JPY lost ground upon the announcement and has continued its weakness into late US trading, currently with a 110 handle. The Nikkei futures has bounced slightly on the back of the currency sell-off but is only just 0.25% higher than the cash close. Both China and HSI remain weak and have extended their losses an additional 0.35%.
This week, the Little Sisters of the Poor were granted a reprieve by the US Supreme Court from the Federal Government’s Obamacare health care mandates.
To summarize the case in two sentences: the Little Sisters didn’t like Obamacare’s mandates that employers pay for abortions. This meant the Little Sisters had to either pay for abortion services through their employee-provided health care plan, or they had to pay substantial fines.
On Monday, the Supreme Court told the lower courts to figure it out without violating the Little Sister’s religious views.
This is being hailed by many observers as a victory for religious freedom. And yet, court rulings and statutes protecting religious freedom were not at all necessary to preserve their religious freedom. The Sisters would have been far better protected by a respect for ordinary property rights.
“It doesn’t mean the market is going to crash tomorrow.”
Money from Chinese investors “has dried up,” a residential real-estate broker in San Francisco told me a few days ago, as he was fretting about the local housing market. It’s a result of the crackdown by the Chinese government on capital flight, he said.
Chinese investors have been buying about 5% to 7% of residential properties in San Francisco, possibly more in parts of Silicon Valley. And other brokers are now publicly chiming in about money from China drying up.
With continued uncertainty in global markets, here is something everyone in the world should think about in the tumultuous weeks, months, and years ahead.
From Benjamin Franklin, July 9, 1722:
“Without Freedom of Thought, there can be no such Thing as Wisdom; and no such Thing as publick Liberty, without Freedom of Speech; which is the Right of every Man, as far as by it, he does not hurt or controul the Right of another: And this is the only Check it ought to suffer, and the only Bounds it ought to know.
Pensions are impossible to understand and are harming Britons’ efforts to save the right amount of cash for later life, the Bank of England’s chief economist admitted on Wednesday night.
Andy Haldane, one of Britain’s most senior banking officials, said consumer confidence in the financial industry had been damaged because even he cannot make “the remotest sense” of most pension deals.
In a scathing appraisal, he added that banks should use less jargon and speak more clearly as the system has been mired by the loss of the personal touch on the high street.
I spent the early days of my career at The Wall Street Journal — this is the mid to late ‘90s we’re talking about — in the paper’s Dallas bureau. It was there that I learned all I need to know about the oil market and how to make a small fortune.
My job back then was to effectively wander the state of Texas, writing a weekly investment column on the opportunities I came across in my travels and my interviews. It was on one of those wanderings that I came across an old oil hand in Houston who’d made a name for himself as one of the industry’s savviest investors.
His office, decorated with Western art and overlooking the Houston skyline from about 20 floors up, smelled of long-dead cigarettes.
This farce is illustrative of the utter breakdown of Libya as a whole. Any pretence that Libya cohered as a single country was shattered along with the government that was bombed off the face of the earth in 2011.
In 2011 NATO rained bombs on Libya to remove the Gaddafi government from power. Openly backing known terrorists in their push to oust Gaddafi, the NATO powers, led by Obama, Cameron and Sarkozy, ended up supporting, fostering and equipping battle-hardened jihadis that they then sent off as a proxy army to begin the destabilization of Syria. But now that proxy army is coming home to roost, with recent reports claiming as many as 6,500 Islamic State fighters are operating in Libya.
[…] So of course the US has responded to this mess in the only way it knows how: sending more troops. Well, to be more accurate, the troops have been there for half a year, but the government is just now getting around to announcing their presence…via an anonymous leak in the Washington Post, that is.
That’s right, since late last year a team of US Special Operations commandos have been stationed in Libya in an attempt to “sort through the various factions and identify the potential recipients of American support in the future.” In other words, the same US government that knowingly backed the crazy jihadis in the first place are now there to vet which groups to back in their fight against the crazy jihadis.
After seeming so “dovish” last month in the bland, edited April policy statement, the FOMC meeting minutes reveal supposedly a different vibe. Today’s release has to this point given “markets” more to assume that a second hike will be coming in June. The statement itself leaves little doubt about what is actually dictating their (irrelevant) policy gestures.
Many participants noted that downside risks emanating from developments abroad, while reduced, still warranted close monitoring. For these reasons, participants generally saw maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at ¼ to ½ percent at this meeting and continuing to assess developments carefully as consistent with setting policy in a data-dependent manner and as leaving open the possibility of an increase in the federal funds rate at the June FOMC meeting.
Very few precious metals investors realize how recent trend changes will greatly impact the gold market going forward. The reason many investors fail to grasp the huge change in the gold market is that they look at data or information on an individual basis. To really understand what is going on, we must look at how all segments of the market compare to each other… a BIRD’S EYE VIEW.
Let’s start off with one segment of the gold market that has changed significantly in the past 15 years. The Global Gold Hedge Book hit a peak of nearly 3,100 metric tons (mt) in 1999:
Those of us watching see the signs, and have witnessed our rights being trampled upon. That’s why so many have been prepping for what is coming.
Now a prominent prepper author is warning that Americans must also be prepared to stave off a complete divide in this country as Obama’s term is coming to an end.
President Obama has pushed the “prepper movement” into high gear, sending millions to buy guns, survival gear and food to live through a “civil war,” according to a nationally known survivalist who calls on Americans to prepare in a new book.
The FOX News poll shows the trend quite clearly with Hillary’snumbers falling consistently and Trump’s rising given him a 3pt lead – his first national lead of the campaign.
[…] The breakdown exposes just how divided America is during this election cycle…
In a “Trading Floor” interview, Saxo Bank CIO and chief economist Steen Jakobsen, discusses the role of central banks in the global economy with Saxo Bank’s Michael McKenna.
“Central banks can do nothing,” says Jakobsen.
He calls the current central bank low to negative interest rate policies the “New Nothingness”.
What follows is a guest post interview, courtesy of Steen Jakobsen, Michael McKenna, and the Saxo Bank “Trading Floor”.
Most Americans are filled with regrets — financial regrets.
Fully three in four, in fact, admit they harbor financial regrets, according to a survey of more than 1,000 adults published Tuesday by Bankrate.com.
Their biggest regret: not saving for retirement early enough (nearly one in five Americans put this in the No. 1 spot). What’s more, among those 65 and up, 27% said this was the biggest regret, compared with 17% of those aged 30 to 49.
From 20 to 22 April, a group of young scholars from all across Europe convened at the CEVRO Institute in Prague for the Second Austrian Economics Meeting Europe (AEME). Founded in 2014 at Mises University, and in the spirit of it, the AEME is an organisation that seeks to once a year bring young European students and researchers in the Austrian tradition together for academic discussions. As such, participants present their current research and comment upon the research of their peers during the day, and spend the evenings engaging in cultural activities to get to know each other better and continue discussing in a more informal atmosphere.
I vividly recall stating to friends and colleagues in the summer of 2008 that W was the worst President in history. At that point I was welcoming the idea of Obama: a guy who seemed completely detached from Washington’s inside mafia and Wall Street’s never-arraigned felons. I was ecstatic over his promise to clean up the fraud and corruption that had been engulfing Wall Street and Capitol Hill over the past couple of Presidents.
About a year into his first term, I had Obama figured out. His campaign slogans were empty billows of mendacious smoke billowing from his mouth. He has not followed through on one plank in his campaign platform. The only people who can’t see it are his slavishly blind devotees, many of whom are afraid to say anything negative about a black man out of fear of being labelled a racist. It was brilliant exercise in psychology by the insiders who selected Obama over Hillary in 2008. At that point I told friends and colleagues that Obama will possibly go down as the worst President in history.
On the heels of gold trading down more than $20 and the HUI Mining Share Index plunging nearly 8 percent, today one of the greats in the business discusses today’s action, and also included is a note about the mining shares.
By Bill Fleckenstein President Of Fleckenstein Capital
May 18 (King World News) – Overnight markets were once again uneventful. However, the SPOOs experienced a small decline and once Wall Street got around to opening that small loss was turned into a modest rally for the Dow and S&P, although the Nasdaq was 0.75% higher, led by Apple. Remember, Apple is now “safe” to buy because Berkshire Hathaway has anointed it and tech bulls are back to extrapolating a higher price for AAPL to mean good news for much of the sector. In other words, sloppy speculation still prevails, despite the fact that so many various and sundry companies in the retail universe and other sectors have been slaughtered…
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