from TheDollarVigilante
Yet Another Brexit Poll Says “Leave”; Number Cruncher Politics – Where the Hell Are You?
by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk
It’s pretty pathetic to have a site called “Number Cruncher Politics” and not bother to crunch the numbers since May 31.
This is despite the fact the numbers have changes significantly in the past week.
I keep watching and watching and watching for further analysis from “Number Cruncher” on Brexit, in light of recent Brexit polls. However, paint dries weeks faster than updates.
Earlier today I reported Brexit Battle “Leave” Surges to 3 Point Lead.
That poll was by Observer/Opinium.
Insider Reveals: The Secret Investment Meetings Of The Wealthiest People On The Planet: “A Huge Fortune To Be Made In The Trump Trade”
by Mac Slavo
SHTF Plan
As the global economy deteriorates and uncertainty in the future becomes the prevailing sentiment, investment insider Marin Katusa of Katusa Research reveals in an interview with SGT Report that the the wealthiest people in the world have lost faith in not only their respective governments and central banks, but financial institutions and major investment fund managers who appear to be just as confused about how to position their assets as everyone else. Further complicating matters is a heated political season that has seen the rise of a candidate who, while despised by the establishment, could potentially shift the entire global paradigm should he be elected to the highest office in the United States.
This is How the Houston Office Market is Melting Down
by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street
“See-through buildings” get dumped on the market.
ConocoPhillips lost $4.4 billion last year and $1.5 billion in Q1 this year. Last fall it announced that it would lay off 10% of its global workforce. Its stock has crashed nearly 50% since the oil bust began. And in February, it slashed its quarterly dividend from 74 cents to 25 cents a share. That’s the new reality.
But before that reality set in, it was planning for endless growth. To accommodate the workforce required by this endless growth, it leased some office space in Houston years before it would need the space. The office market was tight, and leasing unneeded space was the thing to do.
Dow 5,000: Big One Starts in 2017 – Charles Nenner with Greg Hunter
Charles Nenner – Next Big War Will Involve China
by Greg Hunter
USA Watchdog
Charles Nenner, renowned financial and geopolitical analyst, says a major top in the stock market has been made, and it’s downhill from here. Nenner explains, “I still think big up moves should be used to sell equities. We are going slowly to a major sell-off. I still look for Dow Jones 5,000. I think the second half of 2016 is going to be a bad situation for stocks, but it’s not going to be the big one. The big one will start the third quarter of 2017 ending in 2020 or 2021.
On interest rates, Nenner says, “According to the numbers the Fed looks at, the Fed should hike two times. On the long term picture, I think we are going to be in trouble. The rate hikes come in September and December. June will be too early. . . . I think the market will turn down before that. After the summer, the whole second part of the year will not be good.”
On the U.S. dollar, Nenner contends, “I think the dollar will still stay strong. There is no extreme in the dollar. Interest rates are going up in the United States and down in Europe. Why would you not keep dollars? The U.S. economy is still better than the European economy. I am not sure why people think the dollar could crash. . . . If the dollar is strong, that is even worse for the profits of the companies. If the dollar continues up, it is almost certain the stock market is coming down.”
Have Bulls Finally Learned to Live with Fed-itis?
by Rick Ackerman
RickAckerman.com
We should take Friday’s weak payroll numbers with a grain of salt, since they are most unlikely to change the Fed’s hawkish drumbeat of late. I am particularly skeptical of the strong rally in gold, although the current tout suggests maintaining a bullish trading bias as long as the hourly chart stays constructive. The E-Mini S&Ps are another matter, however. Based on the way they’ve rallied or at least remained buoyant regardless of Fed signals in recent weeks, I’ve put out a new rally target for that is intended to stretch the bullish imagination — especially that of permabears who understand that keeping an open mind is the only way we can survive and flourish amidst all the nuttiness.
GE’s Disruptive Tech Boom … No, Really!
by Chad Shoop
The Sovereign Investor
When you think of disruptive companies, those that forever altered the competitive landscape in which they operate, there are a few that instantly come to mind.
Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Netflix and Uber are a few that completely disrupted the way we do things.
In the coming decade, there is one company set to be just as disruptive — but in a slightly different way. It’s a blue-chip, steady dividend-paying stock that is quietly becoming a disruptor that many investors have yet to acknowledged — creating an opportunity for profit as the masses realize its potential disruptions.
Employment Lies
by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts
PaulCraigRoberts.org
June 3, 2016. Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the US economy only created 38,000 new jobs in May and revised down by 59,000 jobs the previously reported gains in March and April.
Yet the BLS reported that the unemployment rate fell from 5.0 to 4.7 percent, a figure generally regarded as full employment.
The May jobs increase only covers a small fraction of the monthly growth in the labor force and, therefore, cannot account for the drop in unemployment.
Moreover, the BLS reported that the labor force participation rate fell by 0.2 percentage points, bringing the decline to 0.4 percentage points over the past two months. Normally, a strong labor market, such as one represented by a 4.7% unemployment rate, causes an increase in the labor force participation rate.
Investors Face Anxious Quiet Before Fed Meeting, Brexit Storm
Consumer credit data expected to be focus
by Wallace Witkowski
Market Watch
A lack of major catalysts before the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting and Britain’s referendum on whether to stay in the European Union will likely keep stocks wobbly and range bound in the week ahead, making what data comes out that much more significant.
Stocks finished lower on Friday after a weak jobs report, resulting in a little changed weekly performance that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.18% slip 0.4%, the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.29% virtually unchanged, and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.58% advance 0.2%.
Weak job numbers on Friday have essentially taken a June rate increase off the table as was evidenced in the sharp drop in rate expectations on Friday, as measured by Fed-funds futures and illustrated in the chart below from Birinyi Associates.
Titanic Math 101
by Vic Patane
SRSRocco Report
It is a great pleasure to offer my prospective to Steve and his readers. I’m not suggesting to compete with SRSrocco regarding his unparalleled level of diligence and fact finding yet perhaps I can add an additional perspective on certain topics.
The long Memorial Day weekend provided some real excitement in the Bitcoin world. The Crypto’s total market value increased by roughly $1.5 billion in less then a week. Silver; however, managed to misbehave, again (why not it’s the rule on three-day weekends). Folks were clearly selling AG and buying Bitcoin.
Just for fun, lets assume total above ground silver is in the range of 4 billion ounces. Furthermore, say 3 billion ounces represent actual physical bars and coins while the balance of 1 billion ounces is represented by market traded products, like SLV. At $16 silver total above ground silver value would be $64 billion. Is that a lot? Nope. You could do any ONE of the following:
Why is the Weather So Crazy All of a Sudden?
by Michael Snyder
The Economic Collapse Blog
All over the planet, global weather patterns have gone completely nuts. Just over the past few days we have seen “life threatening” heatwaves, extremely dangerous wildfires, vicious tornadoes and unprecedented flooding – and that is just in the United States. And of course this is just the continuation of a trend that stretches back to last year, when extremely weird weather created “apocalyptic-like conditions” in many areas around the world. So why is this happening? For decades, we could count on weather patterns falling within fairly predictable parameters, but now that is completely changing all of a sudden. All over the globe we are seeing things happen that we have never seen happen before, and the weather just seems to get even more crazy with each passing month.
Just consider what has been going on the past few days. Let’s start with the “life threatening” heatwave that is currently hammering the west coast…
Everyone Wants Profits – Including “Non-Profit” Groups
by Jonathan Newman
Mises.org
What is a “non-profit” organization? Are they subject to economic calculation? What can economic theory tell us about their functions?
With Hillary Clinton under fire for (among other scandals) using the Clinton Foundation as “a kind of globalist grift,” and with promising new lines of research into social entrepreneurship by Professor McCaffrey and the economics of gifts by Professor Hülsmann, we should take a closer look at “non-profit” organizations and how they fit into the market, if at all.
Since the term includes “profit,” a good place to start would be to distinguish between two types of profit.
How to Profit From a Higher Euro
by James Rickards
Daily Reckoning
The euro’s heading higher from its lowest levels in five years. This is part of the secret “Shanghai Accord” struck by the “Big Four” economic powers (China, Japan, U.S. and Europe) on Feb. 26, 2016.
Investors who act now will have big gains in the year ahead.
Here’s a quick refresher on the Shanghai Accord. The Big Four needed to find a way to cheapen the yuan to stimulate the Chinese economy, which is slowing dangerously. The last two times China cheapened the yuan against the dollar (August 2015 and January 2016), the U.S. stock market fell out of bed. There was a borderline stock market collapse both times.
The solution they agreed to was to keep the yuan pegged to the dollar and cheapen the dollar. This gave China, and the U.S., some relief.
Grasshopper Nation: Planning For Those Who Aren’t Prepared
Whom will you help? And how much will you be able to?
by Adam Taggart
Chris Martenson’s Peak Prosperity
Take a moment to reflect on all the people you care about who aren’t reading this article. Or sites like this, which wrestle with the implications of limits to growth and the concerning unsustainability of the economic and natural systems our society depends upon.
How many of your family members, good friends, and neighbors simply choose to ignore the messages from those of us alarmists on the “doomer” side, and live life trusting that tomorrow will always look and feel pretty much like today? Most of them? All of them?
Look, it’s understandable. Humans aren’t wired well to respond to future risk that isn’t visible as an immediate threat. And temperamentally, we prefer good news over bad, so we seek to overweight the former and discount the latter. Who wants to stress out about what “might” happen tomorrow, anyways — can’t we just enjoy life today?
Hero, Defined
by Karl Denninger
Market-Ticker.org
The other day a Blue Angels plane went down shortly after take-off. From all appearances this is likely to be eventually ruled that an underlying mechanical issue was at fault in the loss of the aircraft, but it will be a while before we know the underlying cause.
The pilot, Capt. Jeff Kuss, appears to have chosen not to eject in order to prevent it from hitting an apartment building.
He died in the crash a consequence.
Captain Kuss had to know that there was a zero percent chance he would survive the impact, and yet if he had punched out the plane might have hit the building, resulting in material loss of civilian life.
You Are Here
by James Quinn
The Burning Platform
“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning
The chart below was posted by Jesse a few weeks ago. It accompanied a post titled Gathering Storm. He doesn’t specifically refer to the chart, but his words reflect the ominous view of the future depicted in the chart.
Jobs Go Off The Cliff As Suicides and Violence Piles Up
… there are a number of economic, social and political factors that have brought us here, toward a cycle of violence that seems unlikely to stop no matter what way America votes in November.
by James Corbett
The International Forecaster
This wasn’t supposed to be what this column is about. I was supposed to be writing about the crisis of irreproducible results in science and the dangers of scientism and technocracy. But then I checked my Twitter timeline.
[…] “US created 38,000 jobs in May vs. 162,000 expected. #JobsReport.” “’Deaths of despair’ drag life expectancy lower for whites.” “Protesters attack Trump supporters; police keep distance.”
These aren’t ginned up stories from fringe sites looking to stir the pot and start the next race war. This is mainstream reporting from the bland, milquetoast MSM. So how did we get here? Let’s break it down:
The “everything is awesome!” economy is, as readers of this column already know, a transparent sham. It’s a paper boat on a wild water rapid kept afloat on leftover hope-ium from 2008. It’s a junkie licking the bottom of the spiked punch bowl the next morning looking for his next fix. It’s a…well, you get the idea.
Proof #3289 of this fact came in the form of yesterday’s Employment Situation Report.
Goldman Finds That China’s Debt Is Far Greater Than Anyone Thought
from Zero Hedge
When it comes to China’s new credit creation, at least the country is not shy about exposing how much it is. To find the credit tsunami flooding China at any given moment, one just has to look up the latest monthly Total Social Financing number which include both new bank loans as well as some shadow banking loans. As we reported in April this amount had soared to a record $1 trillion for the first quarter …
… although as we followed up last month, it tumbled in April as suddenly Beijing slammed the brakes on uncontrolled credit expansion. It is unclear why, although the following chart may have had something to do with it: increasingly less of credit created is making its way into the broader economy.