Every year, Catholics around the world donate tens of millions of dollars to the pope. Bishops exhort the faithful to support the weak and suffering through the pope’s main charitable appeal, called Peter’s Pence.
What the church doesn’t advertise is that most of that collection, worth more than €50 million ($55 million) annually, goes toward plugging the hole in the Vatican’s own administrative budget, while as little as 10% is spent on charitable works, according to people familiar with the funds.
Gold’s post breakout reaction back from its early September peak has evolved into a steady downtrend as we can see on its 6-month chart below. The approach of the rising 200-day moving average below suggests that this reactive downtrend will have run its course before much longer leading to a second upleg. However, gold’s COTs have shown no improvement as this downtrend has unfolded, which is a sign that the downtrend has further to run. The now orderly downtrend has one distinct advantage which is that bulls simply have to wait either for a breakout from it or the development of a basing pattern. One indication that the downtrend is a correction and not the start of something more sinister is the positive divergence of the Accumulation line compared to the price.
Democrats are expecting wide-scale defections among their rank and file when Articles of Impeachment against President Donald Trump come to the floor for a vote next week, the Washington Post reports.
the Washington Post’s Rachael Bade and Mike DeBonis wrote late Wednesday:
House Democratic leaders are bracing for some defections among a group of moderate Democrats in swing districts who are concerned a vote to impeach President Trump could cost them their seats in November.
Bade and DeBonis quote three senior House Democrat officials saying that there will be at least a half dozen Democrats who join with all Republicans to oppose impeaching President Trump, but a third senior Democrat aide told them there would probably be many more than just a half dozen defections.
What does it mean when the Fed and other central banks jointly bemoan the effects of their own policies? Worried about not being able to keep all the plates spinning?
The Federal Reserve, the ECB, the individual central banks of Eurozone countries, such as the Bundesbank and the Bank of France, the central banks of negative-interest-rate countries outside the Eurozone, such as in Switzerland and Sweden, they’re all now lamenting, bemoaning, and begroaning one of the consequences of low and negative interest rates, the ballooning record-breaking pile of business debts.
This is ironic because these outfits that are now lamenting, bemoaning, and begroaning the pileup of business debts are the ones that manipulated interest rates down via their radical and experimental monetary policies, thereby triggering the pileup of business debts.
On Thursday morning, President Donald Trump said far-left climate alarmist Greta Thunberg should to work on her “anger management problem” and “chill.”
“So ridiculous,” Trump posted to Twitter, reacting to TIME magazine naming Thunberg “Person of the Year.”
“Greta must work on her Anger Management problem, then go to a good old fashioned movie with a friend!” the president suggested. “Chill Greta, Chill!”
Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter says big delivery demands are flashing a warning sign that something is very wrong in the gold market. Holter explains, “What’s happened so far this year, there have been roughly 5,900 tons of gold sent to London under ‘exchange for physical.’ The world only produces 2,700 tons a year. There is only one official hoard in the world that is more than that, and that is 8,300 tons in the U.S. Treasury. It has not been audited since 1956. What I am telling you is over 200% of annual production has been sent to London for delivery, and it is an impossibility to deliver. The metal doesn’t exist. Once it gets to London, it is totally shrouded. We see nothing in terms of proof or verification that delivery is being made. It’s being sent to London to die.”
So, is a default in the gold market coming soon? Holter says, “It’s already happened. It’s already happened. They can’t deliver. Just this month alone, in December, there are 41 tons (of gold) standing for delivery. I think they (COMEX) only have 37 tons to deliver on. You will not see the movement inside COMEX showing delivery. The 37 tons will not be eaten into to deliver. Are they paying a 25% premium to settle in cash? Who knows, it’s totally shrouded. You know by sheer size of the numbers that 5,900 tons, in less than one year, for delivery, that’s fraudulent. I hope COMEX or CME sues me because then we get into discovery. I am sure there are 10,000 lawyers that would do this on a pro-bono basis just to get to the truth.”
Despite today’s pullback in the gold market in early trading, gold continues to paint a very bullish picture, plus the big picture for the Fed in 2020.
Gold Close To Major Breakout
December 12 (King World News) – Top Citi analyst Tom Fitzpatrick: A weekly close above this $1,480-$1,490 would suggest an impulsive rally similar to what we saw in June-August this year (see below).
Eric Hadik is back… Stock Market will be moving higher but not greatly so. Could be warning signs flashing in Q1 & Q2 of 2020. Gold Q1 rally might not happen till February. A couple of decent rallies in 2020 for gold, perhaps holding and waiting. No end of the year rally coming. Perhaps a minor rally in December from mid to late December, but no sticking power. Oil Need a weekly close over $60 but otherwise the trend is still down, to around $46. It’s a multi-year trend taking place. OPEC is attempting to lower production and increase prices. Something negative could always his the market. Risk turns to the unexpected. Interest Rates continue to decline to lower rates and then on to a new advance later. Long term cycles point to the middle of 2020 as the most likely time for the next significant top in rates. Between now Q2 we could see rates edge lower. In June/July 2020 there could be a significant reversal of the 30 year trend towards lower rates. Dollar Confined to a tight trading range for the foreseeable future. Could see a decline in late December. Could see a more significant bottom in January/February. Not a necessarily a significant change in the trend. Still hasn’t recpatured its previous highs. Would need to see it break beneath the 94-95 level.
Danielle Park returns… The situation in Canada continues to deteriorate at an alarming pace. Bankruptcies/insolvencies are rising rapidly. So goes Canada, so goes the US? When in doubt cut rates, it always works. Danielle believes the country needs to diversify and develope new businesses. Let’s not forget about China’s worsening economy and its inability to revive the its exports. How will Canada be affected?
It’s been obvious for a while that the next phase of global monetary madness would be both spectacular and very different from the previous phase. The question was whether the difference would be in degree or kind.
Now the answer is looking like “both.”
Let’s start with “yield curve control,” in which central banks, instead of just pushing down interest rates, intervene to maintain the relationship between short and long-term rates.
In a recent interview, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said the following:
Like disgraced former FBI director James Comey before him exonerating Hillary Clinton for her crimes, DOJ inspector general Michael Horowitz presents us with a documented list of crimes, fraud, and deception in the FISA warrant application process by the FBI but then says never mind — these are bureaucratic mistakes made without bias and without intent. There still was sufficient predicate, says he, for starting an investigation and surveillance of Team Trump, even as Horowitz admits that the first FISA warrant, the one authorizing surveilling Carter Page, was riddled with errors and omissions of key exculpatory evidence. It was the first of four frauds committed on the FISA court, a felony.
We have confirmation that the first FISA application, at least, was based almost solely on what Comey himself called the “unverified and salacious” Steele dossier, paid for by the Clinton campaign and the DNC.
While every painful second of every individual’s testimony during the impeachment hearings was relayed and narrative-managed by the mainstream media (and still failed to increase public awareness, let alone support for the Democrats’ plan), interested viewers were hard-pressed to find Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee (on his findings regarding alleged surveillance abuse during the 2016 election) anywhere on the mainstream.
There are plenty of nuggets to enjoy – if you can find a live stream (here) – but this one was particularly noteworthy.
Otherwise, most people will get bored. Most people are already considering clicking away. So I have to get to my point.
A meme is worth 1,000 words.
The unfortunate fact is that we live in a society where uninformed people get to force their will on others. And the only chance we have to educate them on an alternative viewpoint is with a funny image with an ideal maximum of 15 words on it.
Memes have done wonders to get a point across in few words. If people wonder what it’s about, sometimes they will comment, sometimes they will look it up further.
The Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear a case challenging the way local government across the U.S. deal with home developers.
Cherk v Marin County. is a lawsuit brought by Dart and Esther Cherk against Marin County, California, in which the pair challenged the county government’s $40,000 fee to subdivide a vacant plot of land they owned and had hoped to sell.
The fee was part of a Marin County ordinance that requires people subdividing parcels of land to either devote a portion of that land to affordable housing or else pay an in-lieu affordable housing fee.
To the extent that some analysts reject the Fed/Wall St/Perma-Bull narrative that the Fed’s repo operation is needed to address “temporary” liquidity issues or was caused by the newer regulatory constraints, the only explanation offered up is that the financial system’s “plumbing” is malfunctioning. But there has to be an underlying cause…
…The underlying cause is abject deterioration in credit instruments – largely subprime right now – is causing an ever-widening chasm between the value of these securities and the funding used to finance those asset values. The banks have reduced their willingness to fund the increasing demand for overnight collateralized loans because they see first-hand the degree to which some of the collateral has become radioactive (CLO bonds, for instance). The Fed has had to plug the “gap” with its repo operations, several of which have maturities extended up to a month. This is de facto QE, which is de facto money printing.
Mainstream thinking considers the central bank a key factor in the determination of interest rates. By setting short-term interest rates, the central bank, it is argued, can influence the entire interest rate structure by creating expectations about the future course of its interest rate policy.
In this way of thinking, the long-term rate is an average of current and expected short-term interest rates. If today’s one-year rate is 4 percent and the next year’s one-year rate is expected to be 5 percent, then the two-year rate today should be 4.5 percent ((4%+5%)/2=4.5%).
Conversely, if today’s one-year rate is 4 percent and the next year’s one-year rate expected to be 3 percent, then the two-year rate today should be 3.5 percent ((4%+3%)/2=3.5%).
‘If money doesn’t loosen up, this sucker will go down.’
President George W. Bush famously uttered those words a decade ago as the U.S. government was scrambling to restore liquidity and calm panicky markets during the upheaval of the financial crisis.
A few years after that, Berkshire Hathaway’s BRK.A, +0.45% Warren Buffett hailed Bush’s comment as “the greatest economic statement of all time.”
At the time, Buffett said Berkshire always has at least $20 billion in cash. “Some day in the next 100 years when the world stops again, we will be ready,” he explained to a group of M.B.A. students in 2013. “There will be some incident, it could be tomorrow — at that time, you need cash. Cash at that time is like oxygen.”
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