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Probability Part II

by Karl Denninger
Market-Ticker.org

So in Part I we talked about Mozzy a bit.

But I’d like to focus on something else I discussed in that article — the roulette wheel. It turns out that odds and probability in true games of chance, which roulette is, can teach you quite a lot about things that happen in the real world.

As I pointed out, and as anyone who has been in a casino can clearly relate to, every single wheel in a casino has a board at the head where the previous winning numbers for some number back are displayed. They do this because people believe that if 3, 4, 5 or even 10 reds come up in a row the next one is more likely to be black. They thus are drawn to that table, bet, and win or lose…… exactly as they do at every other table! Why? Because what happened before in a game of chance has no influence on what happens in the future, unless of course someone is cheating.

Continue Reading at Market-Ticker.org…

Short Subject

by Ted Butler
Silver Seek

Again and again, I have stressed that silver has been suppressed in price for decades by the concentrated short position of the 4 and 8 largest traders in COMEX futures. Many have come to accept this, but my findings do not have universal acceptance. That’s too bad because it’s all that matters in determining price. It would be better if we were all on the same page. The big shorts have always been able to buy back the short position that they added regularly. Thanks to a steady supply of traders who readily sold out of long positions on rigged price selloffs, the big shorts were able to buy back enough of their short positions to make it profitable.

But starting a year ago, the silver price-rigging scheme run by the big COMEX shorts stopped working as it had for the prior three and a half decades. The big shorts were unable to contain prices, as silver (and gold) ran to multi-year highs generating billions of dollars in losses for the big shorts.

Continue Reading at SilverSeek.com…

Zoltan’s Latest Shocker: The Taper Will Be Bullish If…

from Zero Hedge

Ask around on Wall Street (or any street) what the biggest bogeyman to capital markets is and 11 times out of 10 the answer will be “the taper“, even though the fact that everyone is fully aware of the risks from the Fed’s looming announcement, also means that it is more than fully priced in.

Which is why, in light of the fact that the market’s true biggest risk is runaway, out-of-control, inflation, we previously suggested that far from being a crash catalyst, the taper may well end up being a trigger for further market gains especially since it would mean that the unprecedented flood of liquidity in the market which has sent the Fed’s reverse repo facility to near record levels

Continue Reading at ZeroHedge.com…

The Most Splendid Housing-Inflation Bubbles in America with WTF Spikes in Seattle & Los Angeles

by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street

But condo prices in the San Francisco Bay Area fell year-over-year again, and in New York City have been flat for years.

The national average doesn’t do justice to the craziness in specific housing markets, but it’s crazy enough: House prices soared by 13.2% from a year ago, the biggest increase since December 2005, on the eve before it all came unglued starting in 2006. The National Case-Shiller Home Price Index today is based on a three-month average of sales recorded in public records in January, February, and March. That’s the timing we’re looking at.

Continue Reading at WolfStreet.com…

Biden is Being Hailed as an “Economic Success” for Helping to Cause Rampant Inflation and Widespread Shortages

by Michael Snyder
The Economic Collapse Blog

No matter what Joe Biden does, the corporate media is going to try to spin it into some sort of a success. Right now, the U.S. is experiencing a problem with inflation that is on par with what we witnessed during the Jimmy Carter years of the 1970s. And at this moment, we are facing persistent widespread shortages that are unlike anything that I have seen in my entire lifetime. In fact, Bloomberg is openly admitting that “the world economy is suddenly running low on everything”. But instead of denouncing the decisions that got us into this giant mess, the corporate media is attempting to frame our current circumstances as evidence that Joe Biden’s policies have been successful.

For example, today I came across a CNN article that openly acknowledged that “prices are surging”…

Continue Reading at TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com…

Why Death Certificates Aren’t as Reliable as the CDC Would Have You Believe

by Ryan McMaken
Mises.org

Historically, the overwhelming majority of Americans have ignored death certificates and the topic of how they are processed, produced, and compiled for purposes of government statistics.

During 2020, however, death certificates rose to a level of unprecedented prominence in the United States. This was due to the fact that both state and federal government agencies began using covid death counts as a means to justify a wide variety of radical new government decrees designed to combat disease.

Given that governments were leaning so heavily on death counts as an excuse for unprecedented expansions of state power, many observers quite understandably began to question how these deaths were being counted.

Continue Reading at Mises.org…

How Trump Derangement Syndrome Could Save America

by Steve McCann
American Thinker

In the four years he was President, Donald Trump rebuilt the economy after the policy disasters of the Bush-Obama years, significantly curtailed illegal immigration, confronted and exposed the Chinese Communist Party, and with Operation Warp Speed conquered the China Coronavirus pandemic. While this list is impressive, his most significant long-term accomplishment may well place him in the pantheon of the American presidents that saved the nation: he fortuitously ripped open the floorboards and exposed the termites stealthily and relentlessly consuming the cultural, societal, and governmental foundation of the country.

During the later stages of the 2016 campaign and the four years of his presidency, Donald Trump’s personal characteristics and the timing of his election caused the ruling elites and the Marxist-inspired American left to become enraged and, thus, to fully expose themselves. Their collective duplicity, their furtive alliance, and the magnitude of this merger’s covert and disquieting progress in transforming the nation into a one-party socialist oligarchy is now on display for all to see.

Continue Reading at AmericanThinker.com…

The Insidious Agenda of the Global Elite is Moving Forward Very Rapidly

by Michael Snyder
End of the American Dream

The global elite have an entirely different perspective on things than most of the rest of us. Most people are not focused on “global issues” because they have enough to deal with just trying to run their own day to day lives. But the global elite have so much money that they don’t have to endlessly work long hours in order to “make a living”, and others take care of mundane daily tasks for them. So the global elite are able to pour an inordinate amount of time and energy into the issues that they consider to be important, and population issues are right at the top of the list for many of them.

There is a consensus among the global elite that climate change is the number one threat to our planet by a wide margin, and that humanity is doing far more to cause climate change than any other source. They endlessly push this narrative through the news and entertainment companies that they control, and most people have bought into their propaganda on at least some level.

Continue Reading at EndOfTheAmericanDream.com…

Covid in India

by Jayant Bhandari
Acting Man

Scavengers Out in Full Force

I have just returned from a visit to my family in India. It was hard to escape. To get to the US from India, I needed a COVID test. The Indian government has seriously restricted who can provide COVID testing, treatment, and vaccination. Private doctors and hospitals that are not approved face brutal legal consequences if they provide COVID treatment.

[…] Emergency powers were centralized early last year in the hands of the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. He gave himself direct control over the bureaucrats of the states, making local governments largely impotent and dependent on him.

Continue Reading at Acting-Man.com…

‘They Feel Pretty Helpless’: Officers Fleeing Minneapolis Police Force in Droves Amid Crime Surge

by Jon Brown
Daily Wire

Police officers are leaving the Minneapolis Police Department in droves because they feel “helpless” amid the city’s skyrocketing crime, according to one who left the force last year.

“This goes back before George Floyd,” former Minneapolis police officer Steve Dykstra told Fox News on Tuesday. “Since around 2015, I know the city of Minneapolis has been backpedaling, taking tools away from police to enforce the law and keep the streets safe.”

Dykstra explained that the dwindling resources for cops in the streets was going on even before George Floyd’s death.

“They feel pretty helpless out there,” Dykstra said of the police who remain.

Crime has surged in Minneapolis during the year since Floyd’s death, for which reason the city has been seeking state and federal aid. There has been a 250% increase in gunshot victims in 2021 alone, according to recent data.

Continue Reading at DailyWire.com…

‘Ignore the CDC’: Johns Hopkins Professor Says Half of Americans Have ‘Natural Immunity’

by Shakhzod Yuldoshboev
DailyCaller.com

A professor at Johns Hopkins School of Medicine said Tuesday that almost “half the country” has natural immunity from COVID-19 due to prior infection.

Dr. Marty Makary appeared on “The Vince Coglianese Show” Tuesday, where he called dismissal of natural immunity “one of the biggest failures of our current medical leadership.”

Makary lamented the lack of guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for those who were infected but have recovered from the disease.

He also decried the demonization of people with natural immunity for refusing to get vaccinated, which Makary said is a reasonable decision, because “natural immunity works.”

Continue Reading at DailyCaller.com…

#SilverSqueeze Making an Impact

by Craig Hemke
Sprott Money

It has been four months since the #SilverSqueeze movement began on Reddit and Twitter. While it’s difficult to quantify the impact this is having on the digital derivative price, there’s no doubt that there have been major implications for the physical market.

Before we begin, it’s important to understand that the #SilverSqueeze effort is unrelenting. There are now over 82,000 Reddit users subscribed to the Wall Street Silver page, and another physical buying spree is planned for Wednesday and Thursday of this week. There are some who state that the price impact has been minimal, and I suppose they’re correct when they only use the COMEX price as a reference. But, for today, let’s ignore the digital derivative price. What about the physical market? What impact are the “silverback apes” having there?

Continue Reading at SprottMoney.com…

Vox Stealth Edits Article “Debunking” Wuhan Lab Theory

by Damjan Tutarkov
LaCorte News

Vox has stealth-edited an article from 2020 that claimed Covid-19 originated naturally, and not in the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Computer scientist Paul Graham on Monday posted a chart showing how Vox secretly edited several paragraphs in the March 2020 story to moderate their strong assertion that the virus did not originate in a lab.

“The Wuhan Institute of Virology is a real place, and the exact origin of the novel coronavirus is still a mystery, with researchers racing since the outbreak began to figure it out. But already, virologists who’ve parsed the genome and infectious disease experts who study coronaviruses have more than enough evidence to show that the virus is brand new and came from nature, not the Wihan lab,” read Vox’s original article.

Graham noticed that Vox changed the part that said that scientists “have more than enough evidence to show that” the virus is new, to scientists “say they have enough evidence.”

Continue Reading at LaCorteNews.com…

They Are Telling Us the Plan: A Future Virus “More Deadly” Than COVID is Coming

by Mac Slavo
SHTF Plan

Remember when Bill and Melinda Gates laughed and sneered that the “next pandemic” will get people’s attention? Well, now the World Health Organization is saying the same thing. Kamala Harris is already gearing up for another one too.

Bill Gates Warning: “We’ll Have a Deadlier Pandemic”

Kamala Harris To The United Nations: “We Must Prepare For” The Next Pandemic

A virus even more transmissible and fatal than Covid-19 (which is pretty easy considering Covid’s death rate is about equal to that of the common cold) will lead the world into the next pandemic, the director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus of the World Health Organization (WHO) has said, noting the “evolutionary certainty” of such an occurrence.

Continue Reading at SHTFPlan.com…