by Charles Hugh Smith
Of Two Minds
The decline phase of S-Curves can be gradual or a cliff-dive.
Way back in 2007 I charted five long-wave cycles that I reckoned consequential:
1. Public debt (accumulating federal deficits)
2. Inflation
3. Oil (energy)
4. Interest rates
5. Speculative fever
Fifteen years ago, my chart look-ahead was about three years, to 2010, with the basic idea being that these long-term cycles had already turned or were about to turn. Looking back, I should have added a few other long cycles: demographics, for example.
I have two takeaways looking at this chart 15 years later. You probably have similar takeaways.