from Zero Hedge
By Eric Peters, CIO of One River ASset Management
“My massive bias is to believe things always work out okay,” said Simplicity, walking Occam’s Razor. “But today somehow feels unique, and when I look at supply and demand in oil, grains, base metals too, there’s an undeniable tail risk here,” he said, having analyzed the fundamentals of such things over a long career.
“Without a perfect North American growing season, there will be shortages, perhaps we’ll have them even with perfection, it’s too early to be sure.” And Simplicity paused, sharpened by decades of trading markets that oscillate wildly in times of great uncertainty as producers, consumers and speculators struggle to balance supply and demand. “It’s critical to size your positions small enough so that you don’t discover you’re trading a 3-year perspective with a 3-day stop-loss.”