by Karl Denninger
Market-Ticker.org
I’ve been tracking Covid-19 since spring here in my own county, along with others in Tennessee and in multiple states in aggregate.
Tennessee has reached suppression. It is too early for the vaccines to have built antibodies; they are just starting second shots, and it requires 3-4 weeks after that before you have a protective level — assuming all goes well, of course. Therefore the earliest that the vaccine could start to suppress transmission is approximately the end of February.
Yet we reached a peak in “cases”, on a 7-day moving average basis, one month ago. This county tracked almost exactly the state’s curve in that regard. The 7 day average is down by 50% since that point and collapsing rapidly. Within the next month it should be under 1/5th to 1/10th of the peak.
Hospitalization has peaked too, but of course more-recently. The peak was roughly 10 days ago. Again, this is normal. While the “cases” rate is full of false positives you cannot false positive bodies in beds, so that’s accurate.