Biden is a Huge Favorite to Win the Election

by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
The Street

Nate Silver’s model shows Biden is favored to win the election in November with odds of 71-29.

Model Forecast

The FiveThirtyEight Model shows Biden has a 71% chance of winning the election.

My seat-of-the-pants forecast was 70%, nearly the same.

The FiveThirtyEight (538) model ran 40,000 simulation.

I ran zero simulations. Instead I looked at polls in swing states and concluded Trump’s path to victory was very narrow.

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