by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Nate Silver’s model shows Biden is favored to win the election in November with odds of 71-29.
The FiveThirtyEight Model shows Biden has a 71% chance of winning the election.
My seat-of-the-pants forecast was 70%, nearly the same.
The FiveThirtyEight (538) model ran 40,000 simulation.
I ran zero simulations. Instead I looked at polls in swing states and concluded Trump’s path to victory was very narrow.