Counterfactual Coronavirus Nonsense

by Karl Denninger

If we did nothing 2.2 million people would die. You’d see death all over; you’d see people die on airplanes, you’d see people die in hotels, etc… — President Trump.

Data for United States in 2018
Number of deaths: 2,839,205

So did you see people dropping over on airplanes?

Did you see people dropping over in hotels?

Reality is that this level of death happens every day. Would having another 2 million deaths be bad? Yes, it would be. But there is no evidence for that even in the so-called “worst case”, in that in Italy they did a retrospective look at “CV” deaths and found fewer than one in five was plausibly caused by Coronavirus. That you had coronavirus doesn’t mean you died of coronavirus.

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