by Karl Denninger
Market-Ticker.org
Folks, all this “we’ll test everyone!” screed out of Pence is amusing as it is an attempt to “reassure” instead of inform.
The entire premise of the CFR — Case Fatality Rate — claims being slung around with regard to WuFlu being “X” times worse than the regular flu rests on a premise that is not proved and in fact appears to be false — and Pence knows it.
Take measles. There are no sub-clinical cases of measles that we’re aware of, and there never have been.
That is, if you get measles you will get a fever and a rash. Every time.
Therefore, if we count people who get measles, which we can do because it’s trivially determinable that you have measles by simple observation, we can then figure out both the R0, that is, transmission rate, we can figure out how it’s transmitted and we can also figure out the CFR along with related stats (serious morbidity, etc.)