Martin Armstrong says the current situation is similar to the height of Yellow Journalism, which brought on the Spanish American War. Less than 8,000 people worldwide who have died and of course those the numbers will go up. Only 200k people worldwide have the actual virus. Over 600k die annually from the flu, 500k in the US from smoking every year. And we’re shutting down the world. The economic damage will be profound. The bulk of the economy is small business and they’re not getting any bailout. Many of them will be pushed over the edge. Flu season takes place during cold weather, not warm. There’s empty hospital beds now in China and South Korea. The real question is will it reoccur next winter.
What about the damage to the stock market? Martin’s model shows the decline starting in January 2020. This crash will be a combination of 2008 and 1998. This is what a liquidity crisis looks like. Same with the repo crisis, banks won’t lend to other banks. Europe is refusing to do any bailouts. This isn’t QE, it’s providing liquidity to a market that no one else will lend to.
Eventually the market will bounce. It will go to new highs in the years ahead. This is a lack of confidence in government. The worst thing the Fed could have done was cut rates to zero. It was all out of ammo and the markets called its bluff. The resulting decline undermined confidence the Fed and all of government. Similar to what caused the gold advance of the 1980’s. What’s next, will we start tipping waiters in toilet paper?
This will eventually lead to a major advance in gold, not yet but it’s lurking out there. Negative interest rates won’t work. Look at Europe. They have to kill the market to save it.