by Alasdair MacLeod
It’s easy to criticise the Fed for its failures, because its successes have been only one in number: kicking the can down the road.
But we should spare a thought for the difficulties policy-makers now face. So what would you do if you were on the Open Markets Committee?
Repeatedly kicking that can has so far succeeded, but economic conditions are changing all the time, throwing up new challenges. The next chart dramatically exposes the one issue that historically would have determined interest rate policy in advance, but is being widely ignored, even by the FOMC.