from Bill Still
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About 18 months ago, Beth and I were very early Dr. Ben Carson fans. This was when Carson was relatively unknown.
She contacted the Carson campaign and was offered to be the head of the county we were then living in for Carson.
Carson had a very persuasive pitch at that time – now remember, this was completely pre-Trump by at least 6 months. Dr. Carson’s pitch was that he could win if he won only 18% of the black vote.
Naturally, we thought, well that will be easy.
But then as rumors that Trump was considering running and we got a look at both candidates speaking, both of us just felt that Carson was too soft spoken for the job we knew would be ahead for the Republican nominee. He would have to face the killer Clinton machine – the death star of American politics.
So we jumped to the Trump train several months before the announcement. And now let’s look at his numbers among the black voters of America using advanced data mining and analysis techniques from the latest in what’s called social cultural intelligence created by culturintel.com.
Over a 30 day time frame, May 2016 to June – cultureintel.com mined data from message boards, 30%; topical sites, 27%, social networks, 22%, blogs, 12% and comments, 9%.
But check the quantity of the sample – 9,734,364 voters 18 and over, including over a million Hispanics and 1.9 million blacks.
Look at this graph. Look at the bar on the far right. Donald Trump was getting 26% of the black vote, 37% of the Hispanic vote and at that point, Trump was still behind Clinton in this poll by a 41 to 47 margin, but remember, this ended one week before the Republican primaries did on Jun. 7, when Trump had been battered by 17 opponents for the preceding 5 months.
Those numbers for Hispanics and blacks would make Trump the most popular Republican in 60 years
So his black vote on June 1 – probably his lowest point in popularity – was 44% more than Dr. Carson said would be needed to win.
But now fast forward to this evening when new polls have just been announced that Trump now leads in three key battleground states, Ohio, Pennsylvania & Florida. As Ed Rollins and Lou Dobbs just agreed on Fox Business, if this holds, Trump wins.
I’m Still reporting from Washington. Good day.