by Kurt Kallaus
The 2 major questions generating volatile price speculation are:
(1) When Will The Fed Hike Rates? A Fed rate hike had been given only a 29% odds of occurring last week, despite a very clear messaging campaign by multiple Fed officials that they were very anxious to raise interest rates ASAP. The Fed seems willing to ignore the weakening trend in economic data, but that debate may have been postponed until July with today’s reporting of extraordinarily weak jobs data. If today’s shocking 6 year low of just 38,000 jobs added represented a new trend then we would be jumping on the recession bandwagon. Our belief is that job growth is slowing from well over 200,000 a month, but 38,000 was an extreme outlier in a downtrend.