Forget About China

Experts say price trends will be driven by issues relating to specific commodities and not mass demand fluctuations.

by Sungula Nkabinde
Mine Web

Forecasting commodity prices seems to be a fool’s game. With everything that has happened over the last two or three years, it is unlikely that anyone can say with any authority what will happen to prices in the near future.

Some would say it will all depend on what happens with the Chinese economy; others speak of emerging countries such as India picking up the slack to drive demand. But the only truth is that mining companies have to keep their costs as low as possible to derive any value in the near term.

“People talk about India as being the next China, but the country is a very different proposition, because of its democracy, and that makes things difficult to get done in the same way China did,” says Kieran Daly, head of South Africa resources at UBS Investment Bank.

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