by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
A Wall Street survey of economists in June 2016 suggests there is a 21% chance of recession in the next year.
Given that economists have never once predicted a recession in advance, 21% is a high percentage actually.
Economists now scramble to assess risk as Economic Gauges Raise Specter of Recession.
Hiring is slowing, auto sales are slipping and business investment is dropping. America’s factories remain weak and corporate profits are under pressure. All are classic signs of an economic downturn, and forecasters have certainly noticed. In a Wall Street Journal survey this month, economists pegged the probability of a recession starting within the next year at 21%, up from just 10% a year earlier. Some economists think the risk is even higher.