Breakup of the EU and a Trump presidency are now real possibilities
by Jeremy Warner
It’s all about uncertainty. From the now very real prospect of a Trump presidency to the still greater likelihood of Brexit – which could in turn trigger a domino effect of Eurosceptic rebellion across Europe – rarely has the political landscape looked quite so turbulent, unpredictable and therefore threatening to economic stability as it does now.
What even just a few weeks ago had been regarded by markets as little more than tail risks are all of sudden real and present “dangers”. The breakup of the European Union, Donald Trump in the White House – these things may actually happen, and indeed seem to be getting more probable by the day.
With most economies still struggling to return to pre-crisis norms, and the business cycle in many of them already quite long in the tooth, uncertainty about the political future has again soared up the list of key business concerns, causing many companies to go into lock down mode.