May Macro Update: Some Signs of Slowing Growth

by Urban Carmel
Financial Sense

Summary: The macro data from the past month continues to point to positive but sluggish growth. On balance, the evidence suggests the imminent onset of a recession is unlikely.

That said, data over the past month was on the weak end. For example, employment growth was 1.9% yoy versus 2% or more during most of 2015. Retail sales was 0.9% yoy versus more than 2% during most of 2015. New home sales growth was 5%, but the peak in monthly sales was more than a year ago (February 2015). We will be watching closely to see if flattening growth persists or expands to other indicators over the next months.

The main positives from the main data are in employment, consumption growth and housing:

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