from Zero Hedge
When trying to time the next US recession, most economists – as one would expect – look at economic data. The problem with such “data” as last year’s farcical double seasonal GDP adjustments have shown, is that if the government is intent on putting lipstick on the pig that is US GDP, it will do just that over and over, unleashing non-GAAP GDP if it must, to avoid revealing the truth until it is prepared to do so.
To avoid such purposeful obfuscation SocGen’s Albert Edwards looks at places where it is more difficult to fabricate and goalseek data. Conveniently, he has discovered precisely that in what calls a “failsafe recession indicator,” one which has stopped flashing amber and has turned to red. He is referring to whole economy profits data, which in his own words “shows a gut wrenching slump.”