U.S. House Prices Forecast 2016, Crash or Continuing Housing Bull Market?

by Nadeem Walayat
Market Oracle

The most recent release of US House prices data for December 2015 (Case Shiller 10 City Composite) continues to show little change at 197.21 against 197.40 of 4 months earlier which means that US house price inflation has spent virtually the whole of 2015 within a tight range of between +5% and +4%, which whilst stable is nevertheless a far cry from early 2014 that had house price inflation galloping ahead at near 14% per annum as illustrated by the below momentum graph.

[…] U.S. House Prices Crash Doomsday

Despite house prices having ended 2015 about 5% higher, apparently the US housing market is still on the precipice of a bear market, collapse, crash or even worse! And one does not have to look far for such prevalent housing market doom. Even much of the mainstream press is infected with such expectations as pundits have taken the prospects of a US economic slowdown as further signs for the imminent demise of the US housing market latching onto the likes of Saudi Arabia’s war on the US shale oil industry, China’s fast decelerating economy, and then we have the prospects for further Fed interest rates hikes during 2015. The only problem for the doom merchants is that they have been banging the same drum for the duration of the housing bull market that has literally ridden a wall of worry for near 4 years now since the early 2012 bottom.

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