from Zero Hedge
Via ConvergEx’s Nicholas Colas,
With yesterday’s impressive equity rally, every trader is asking the same question: “Can U.S. equities go green on the year?” The S&P 500 is now down “just” 3.2% in 2016 and there’s nothing like a +2% one-day rally to hold out hope of actual gains before March 31.
To think through this question, we outline the scenarios that DO push equities higher (a good jobs number, a quiescent Fed, and good economic data) and compare them to those that DON’T (presidential politics, oil prices, and corporate fundamentals). To our thinking, it’s a coin toss either way. For the bullish camp, we recommend Financials – laggards YTD, but set for a rally based on the catalysts that might move markets higher. And for the bears: the biggest winners YTD (Utilities, Staples and Telecomm) along with gold and Treasuries.
Nothing is working the way it’s supposed to, at least lately. Just consider a few of yesterday’s headlines: