Why You Can’t Trust the Polls

by James Rickards
Daily Reckoning

Right now Biden is trashing Trump in all the polls. Biden’s leading in the national polls. He’s leading in a lot of state by state polls, which are more significant. I’ll explain why in a minute. And if you just count all the electoral votes, based on that, you’d say “Biden’s going to win.”

But there’s a lot of nonsense in that sentiment. First off, national polls don’t matter. Forget national polls because we don’t have national elections. We have state by state elections. Montana has an election, New York has an election, Texas has an election and so forth. A candidate wins so-called electors in each state. Then those electors get together in December and elect a president.

So the popular vote doesn’t ultimately count. Winning the popular vote doesn’t matter if you don’t win the electors. In fact, in 2000 and 2016, in Bush versus Gore and Hillary versus Trump, the person who was elected president lost the popular vote.

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