by Paul
First Macro Capital
4 Pandemics – Watch the Second Wave.
While attention is focused on the overall scale of COVID-19, from many of the leading specialists at Imperial College, Hong Kong University, and Harvard University. If this is a pandemic, which looks more and more likely by the day. Where is this pandemic currently in the pandemic cycle? Is it early in the cycle? Halfway through the cycle? Or is it at the end of the cycle?
If we take the Ray Dalio principle, “Wherein history has this happened before?”. Many times, we have to go back in time where the current generation experiencing a difficult event wasn’t even alive when the past event occurred or was too young to be aware of it. What historical examples can we look at, to see what has happened during past pandemic waves? The Government of New Zealand in their pandemic preparation has put together an analysis of four major pandemics going back more than 130 years.