The Two Speeds of This Economy

by Jeffrey P. Snider
Alhambra Partners

The ultimate lesson for learning not to rely on one quarter of GDP growth was actually two quarters. In the middle of 2014, GDP posted back-to-back gains that at the time seemed nothing less than fantastic. Even with residual seasonality revisions and new benchmarks, those two quarters remain prominent landmarks in an otherwise bleak landscape. And that is the whole point; despite the fact that the BLS currently figures Q3 2014 GDP at nearly 5%, such a strong estimate meant absolutely nothing as far as telling us anything meaningful about the actual state of the economy and how it might move forward. It was pure fool’s gold.

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