Something’s Got to Give in the Oil Market

by Stefan Wieler
Gold Money


Crude oil time-spreads have completely dislocated from inventories. Historically, such dislocations have proved to be short lived. We expect that either spot prices will sell-off again or the back end of the curve will move sharply higher. As per our proprietary gold pricing model, the latter would be very supportive for gold prices.

Oil prices have rallied sharply from their January lows. At the time of writing, ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI front month prices are up 64% and 71%, respectively. While the media and commodity analysts have focused mainly on the recent rally in the spot price, in our view the more interesting development was in the curve structure.

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