Deflation is the Dog That Has Failed to Bark, Let Alone Bite

by Andrew Sentance

Inflation is on the rise. The latest figures for March show an increase in the main CPI inflation measure to 0.5pc. This is hardly shocking. I was a Saturday shop assistant at Boots the Chemist in the summer of 1975 when UK inflation hit a peak of nearly 27pc. I spent most of my working day changing the prices of goods on the shelves to keep up with the notifications of increases coming through from head office. A small rise in UK inflation to 0.5pc is a world away from runaway double-digit price increases over 40 years ago.

But this latest modest rise does have significant implications for our assessment of UK inflation prospects. There are four key conclusions we can draw – and all point to higher inflation in the future.

First, deflation fears have been totally exaggerated.

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