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World Faces ‘Lost Year’ as Policymakers Sleepwalk Towards Fresh Crisis, Warns IMF

by Szu Ping Chan
Telegraph.co.uk

The world is sleepwalking into a fresh crisis as investors start to lose faith in policymakers’ ability to revive the global economy, according to the International Monetary Fund.

In its bluntest warning to date on the costs of policy inaction, the IMF said “financial and economic stagnation” could take hold unless governments prevented a “pernicious feedback loop of fragile confidence, weaker growth, low inflation and rising debt burdens” from forming.

José Viñals, the head of the IMF’s financial stability division, said a prolonged slowdown could knock around 4pc off global output relative to current expectations over the next five years amid repeated bouts of market turmoil.

Continue Reading at Telegraph.co.uk…

More Lies on the Bathroom Deal

by Karl Denninger
Market-Ticker.org

You can’t really expect me to buy this, can you? After all, you contradict yourself in your own article — which means you’re lying, and you know it.

I am often asked why toilets are such a big issue. I don’t have all of the answers, but I have a good idea of what these questions are about. When my daughter transitioned at ten years old and began using the appropriate toilet for her, adults in our community and across the state were very upset.

First, your son didn’t “transition” to your daughter at ten. You presented and advanced a false narrative — that your son is something he is not, which has persisted to this day.

There is nothing wrong, incidentally, with being unhappy with one’s lot in life — including your draw in the genetic lottery. But being unhappy with something doesn’t mean it’s not real. It simply means you refuse to accept physical facts.

Continue Reading at Market-Ticker.org…

Brazil $8 Billion Intervention No Match for Impeachment Joy

by Filipe Pacheco
Bloomberg.com

A record $8 billion intervention by Brazil’s central bank couldn’t keep the real from climbing to the highest level since August amid bets that president Dilma Rousseff will be impeached.

The central bank sold 160,000 foreign-exchange reverse swaps in five different auctions Tuesday, moves that are equivalent to buying dollars in the futures market. It was the biggest sale on a single day since the contracts, which tend to weaken the real, were sold for the first time in 2005. The program was re-introduced last month after three years of efforts to support the currency.

Continue Reading at Bloomberg.com…

Central Banks Are Printing to Avert a Global Meltdown – As Gold Miners Start to ‘Melt Up’

by Jeff Berwick
Dollar Vigilante

Yesterday we went over the state of the world and if you read the article you’ll find it’s not good. In fact, it’s downright disastrous. There are defaults and impending collapses all over the place, from China to Europe to South America and beyond.

What did the stock market do the very next morning? It went up 160 points for some reason.

So let me try again to expose the reality of what’s happening. And then I’ll try to provide some actions you can take from an investment and savings standpoint. Hey, no matter how bad it is, someone is always making a profit somewhere. It might as well be us. In fact it will be us. The market is turning fast now, and we’re turning with it.

News first. While the market was climbing some 160 points, the Atlanta Fed continued to downgrade the US economy.

Continue Reading at DollarVigilante.com…

China’s Big Four Banks, StanChart, ANZ to Join Yuan Gold Benchmark

by A. Ananthalakshmi
Reuters.com

Top Chinese banks, alongside Standard Chartered and ANZ, will be among 18 members to join a new yuan-denominated gold benchmark that signals China’s biggest step towards becoming a price-setter for the metal.

As the world’s top producer, importer and consumer of gold, China has baulked at having to depend on a dollar price in international transactions, and believes its market weight should entitle it to set the price of gold.

The yuan gold fix, to be launched on April 19, is not expected to pose an immediate threat to the gold pricing dominance of London and New York, but it could ultimately give Asia more power, particularly if the Chinese currency becomes fully convertible.

Continue Reading at Reuters.com…

Peter Thiel Says Everything Is Overvalued: “Public Equities, Houses, Government Bonds”

from Zero Hedge

Since the Fed may not, or simply refuses, to see if not a bubble then at least “froth” in any asset class, perhaps it should hire Peter Thiel to be on its macroproduential supervisory committee, because according to the venture capital legend who co-founded PayPal everything is overvalued. Speaking at the LendIt USA Conference in San Francisco on Tuesday, he said that he is “somewhat concerned about the frothiness of the markets” and adds that “startup tech stocks may be overvalued, but so are public equities, so are houses, so are government bonds.

He adds that “if there is a bubble it is probably centered on the zero % interest rates, the quantitative easing, the money printing and that’s a very strange one because it permeates everything.”

Continue Reading at ZeroHedge.com…

Peak Negative-Interest-Rate Absurdity? Hilarity Ensues

by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street

Among the goodies: “reverse Yankee” landmines.

When a central bank like the ECB imposes negative interest rates along with QE on its bailiwick, funny things start to happen.

Investors become so eager to get any kind of visible yield that they will do the craziest things. They’re now chasing €3 billion of 50-year bonds that the French government placed today. The yield? 1.916%.

These 50-year bonds are bought by institutional investors who, in normal times, would have been institutionalized.

Continue Reading at WolfStreet.com…

Cold War Update from Batchelor and Cohen

by Turd Ferguson
TF Metals Report

Look, I know you’ve got a lot going on. Keeping track of all the events in your own country is hard enough. However, The New Cold War and represents a serious threat to all of us and you simply must find a way to keep yourself abreast of the situation. To that end, we’ve been linking these podcasts for over two years now. Please make the time to listen each week.

The situation in Ukraine is rapidly deteriorating and many of the grace concerns we’ve expressed here are coming to the forefront. The U.S.-installed prime minister, “Yats”, has resigned and the U.S.-backed president, Poroshenko, is caught up in the Panama Papers scandal. This political uncertainty makes the situation on the ground very dangerous. So, again, please take the time to listen to this important update from Mr. Batchelor and Professor Cohen.

Continue Reading at TFMetalsReport.com…

$ 1.48 Trillion: Government Collects Record-High Taxes in First Half of FY 2016

Despite collecting record revenues, government still runs $461 billion deficit.

by Washington Free Beacon | Ali Meyer
Info Wars

Inflation-adjusted federal tax revenues hit a record $1.48 trillion for the first half of fiscal year 2016, but the federal government still ran a $461 billion deficit during that time, according to the latest monthly Treasury Department statement.

Treasury receipts include tax revenue from individual income taxes, corporate income taxes, social insurance and retirement taxes, unemployment insurance taxes, excise taxes, estate and gift taxes, customs duties, and other miscellaneous items.

In the first half of fiscal 2016, which included the months of October, November, December, January, February, and March, the amount of taxes collected by the federal government outpaced the first half of all previous fiscal years, even after adjusting for inflation. The 2016 fiscal year begins on Oct. 1, 2015, and runs through Sept. 30, 2016.

Continue Reading at InfoWars.com…

President Killary

by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts
PaulCraigRoberts.org

[…] Hillary Clinton is proving to be the “teflon candidate.” In her campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, she has escaped damage from major scandals, any one of which would destroy a politician. Hillary has accepted massive bribes in the form of speaking fees from financial organizations and corporations. She is under investigation for misuse of classified data, an offense for which a number of whistleblowers are in prison. Hillary has survived the bombing of Libya, her creation of a failed Libyan state that is today a major source of terrorist jihadists, and the Benghazi controversy. She has survived charges that as Secretary of State she arranged favors for foreign interests in exchange for donations to the Clintons’ foundation. And, of course, there is a long list of previous scandals: Whitewater, Travelgate, Filegate. Diana Johnstone’s book, Queen of Chaos, describes Hillary Clinton as “the top salesperson for the ruling oligarchy.”

Continue Reading at PaulCraigRoberts.org…

Retail Sales -0.3%; Autos Down 4th Month, Plunge -2.1%; Hooray Gasoline Up 0.9%

by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk

Retail sales numbers for March were a disastrous -0.3% despite gasoline sales which were up 0.9%

Excluding gasoline, March retail sales fell 0.4%.

Autos led the plunge down 0.4%, the fourth consecutive month.

The Bloomberg Econoday economists’ consensus estimate was +0.1% in a range of -0.4% to +0.3%. Once again economists were clueless.

Continue Reading at MishTalk.com…

This is What Bullish Markets Do

by Avi Gilburt
Gold Seek

While we still do not have a long term confirmed bottom in the metals complex just yet, the price action is quite indicative of a very bullish market. You see, when the metals are truly in a bullish trend, they do not see deep retracements, which forces market participants to chase price, as most corrections are simply high level price consolidations. This is starting to look like what we are seeing in the GLD and GDX.

Last week, we were looking for a further rally in the metals complex. But, our expectation was that the rally would likely be part of a corrective pattern.

Specifically, as I noted about the GDX:

Continue Reading at GoldSeek.com…

Buy Gold ! – HSBC

by Mark O’Byrne
GoldCore

Buy gold is the call of HSBC technical analysts who are becoming increasingly bullish on gold and increasingly bearish on stocks as reported by Business Insider.

[…] Sentiment towards gold is slowly moving from being extremely negative and bearish to more bullish. HSBC joins a long list of large banks, insurers and investment houses who are now bullish on gold.

HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, ABN Amro, UBS, Deutsche Bank, PIMCO and BlackRock head a growing number of investment houses that are recommending an allocation to gold today. Indeed, the world’s largest reinsurer Munich Re is buying gold.

Continue Reading at GoldGore.com…

China’s Yuan Gold Benchmark to Launch with 18 Members

by A. Ananthalakshmi
Reuters.com

Top Chinese banks and gold miners, along with the world’s biggest jewellery retailer, will be among 18 members taking part in Beijing’s new yuan-denominated gold benchmark, a source familiar with the matter said.

Two foreign banks will also join the benchmark-setting process, when it launches on April 19, marking China’s biggest step to become a price-setter for gold.

As the world’s top producer, importer and consumer of gold, China has baulked at having to depend on a dollar price in international transactions, and believes its market weight should entitle it to set the price of gold.

Continue Reading at Reuters.com…

Three Veterans Share Crucial Updates on Major Markets

from King World News

With the Dow surging along with the dollar, today 3 veterans share crucial updates on major markets.

Here is a portion of today’s note from Art Cashin: Conflicts And Causes In Oil Inventories – Last night, my good friend and fellow trading veteran, Jim Brown over at Option Investor, wrote this on crude inventories:

Tomorrow is all about earnings and oil. The API inventories tonight showed a 6.2 million barrel build and WTI traded about 70 cents lower at $41.50 but then stabilized to wait on the EIA numbers on Wednesday morning. Cushing inventories declined -1.5 million barrels because the 590,000 bpd Keystone pipeline was halted for seven days. That pipeline flows into Cushing Oklahoma.

Continue Reading at KingWorldNews.com…

Foreign Real Estate is the New Swiss Bank Account

by Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor
International Man

Financial privacy is dead.

You should assume that, sooner or later, all the details of your financial life will land in a government computer—if they haven’t already—and plan accordingly.

A record of pretty much every penny you earn, save and spend is permanently stored somewhere. And the government could retrieve that information if it wanted to.

It’s not a comfortable or happy thought. Knowing you’re financially naked and exposed to an insolvent government hungry for revenue might make you feel like you just ate rat poison for lunch.

Continue Reading at InternationalMan.com…

Weekly Resistance Levels in the HUI

by Pater Tenebrarum
Acting Man

Options Expiration Ante Portas – Just as a Resistance Level is Reached

After we had penned our little missive on the breakout in gold stocks on Monday, it dawned on us that an options expiration takes place this week. Normally, gold stocks decline into the expiration date. Don’t hold us to this, but the last time we remember call writers being forced to delta-hedge their way out of trouble in gold and silver stocks right at the end of an expiration week was sometime in 2006.

Given this backdrop and the recent breakout, we decided to take a look at weekly lateral resistance levels in the HUI – not least because by Monday’s close, it had actually reached one of those. Here is a chart showing all the important medium term support and resistance lines, plus a possible future path for the index if the breakout actually holds up (obviously, this path is pure guesswork).

Continue Reading at Acting-Man.com…

A Bug in Search of a Windshield

by Lance Roberts
Real Investment Advice

Editor Note: Michael Lebowitz of 720 Global Research is an investment consultant, specializing in macroeconomic research, valuations, asset allocation, and risk management. He is a regular contributor to Real Investment Advice.


On numerous occasions over the past year we’ve suggested U.S. equity valuations were expensive. Certainly the recent sharp rebound in share prices in the midst of declining earnings, lower earnings forecasts and slowing domestic and global economic growth has only strengthened our conviction. In this article we compare equity valuations and the market drivers of 2013 to those today and outline why we think equities may be the so-called “bug in search of a windshield”.

Continue Reading at RealInvestmentAdvice.com…

How the Play the End of the Biggest Oil Bear Market Ever

by Greg Guenthner
Daily Reckoning

The worst oil bear market in history appears to be coming to a chaotic end…

Oil broke above $42 to new 2016 highs yesterday. That marked the third straight day of a rally that began around $37.

As of yesterday afternoon, oil’s back above its 200-day moving average. And it’s lifting the rest of the market higher too. The Dow was up about 165 points yesterday. Futures are pointing toward a higher open this morning.

So… is it time to place a few shekels on an oil play? You’re about to find out.

It’s been a long time since oil’s had this much pep in its step.

Continue Reading at DailyReckoning.com…

The Dollar Fights Back

by Chuck Butler
Daily Pfennig

Good Day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I’ve had an awful morning, with all kinds of problems, from modem problems to stomach problems, it just doesn’t get any better than this folks! So…. This is going to be short-n-sweet today, sorry, but my heart just isn’t into writing and using my brain this morning… They say that you get what you pay for, right? Wink, wink… Graham Nash greets me this morning with his song: Military Madness, which is a song that used to play on the piano, which means it’s easy to play! HA! Alex, who has mastered the guitar, is learning how to play the piano now. I love to hear him playing on our piano when he comes home..

Continue Reading at DailyPfennig.com…

Wayne Allyn Root – Trump Will Win the Nomination and Destroy Hillary

from Financial Survival Network

Wayne Allyn Root, author, movie producer and famed Vegas odds maker weighed in on the election and the efforts to Dump Trump and make Hillary Electable Again. Wayne believes that the GOP Establishment will go to their deaths fighting Trump. In the end, if they succeed they fail because the party will cease to exist. And if they lose, they’re done for it because Trump will sweep them aside. And then the winner gets to take on Hillary, an extremely flawed candidate who should be serving time in prison, not the White House. It’s all building up to be an incredible election, but next week is New York’s Primary and the stars are lining up for Donald Trump!

Click Here to Listen to the Audio

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Dr. Sebastian Gorka – Time to Put an End to Jihad

from Financial Survival Network

Sebastian L. Gorka, Ph.D. serves as the Major General Matthew C. Horner Distinguished Chair of Military Theory at Marine Corps University where he provides courses and lectures on Irregular Warfare. Previously he was Associate Dean of Congressional Affairs and Relations to the Special Operations Community at National Defense University. With this background he is well versed in the ongoing struggle against Global Jihad. He believes a there is no total military solution, but rather that we must work with our allies on a combined approach. He believes that the current administration has failed completely in its efforts and has lost all credibility.

Click Here to Listen to the Audio

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A Potentially Cruel Earnings Season Kicks Off

from Dollar Collapse

Most US companies will report earnings this month, and most analysts think the results will depressing.

That’s bad news for stock prices and might add to the (already considerable) pressure on governments to step up their stimulus programs.

Gold and silver, meanwhile, seem to like all this financial turmoil.

Click Here to Listen to the Audio

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Clinton Email Server Greatest Intel Disaster in History – Scott Uehlinger with Greg Hunter

Scott Uehlinger – Iran Deal Increases Chance for Middle East War

by Greg Hunter
USA Watchdog

Former frontline CIA Officer Scott Uehlinger says Hillary Clinton clearly broke the law with her private unprotected server. Uehlinger explains, “What the Clintons rely on is most Americans don’t really understand the security procedures. So, they can throw up a lot of smoke and mirrors that confuses people and makes them think that this was not so much of a problem. But people in the military and people in the intelligence community understand this better, and certainly it is even worse than it appears. . . . The fact that she set up a private server, in and of itself, means she is guilty of a felony right there. Obviously, by having a private server, she was conspiring to evade her signed sworn statements that she would uphold secrecy agreements. The fact that she simply established that (private server) regardless of what was on it, she intended to go around and circumvent the law. Now, we had more than 100 highly classified emails on the server, and the fact that this server is absolutely vulnerable to any Chinese, Russian or Iranian hacking, this is the greatest disaster or mishandling of classified information at the upper levels of the U.S. government in history. There is no question about it.”

Continue Reading at USAWatchdog.com…

Startling Inflation News Illustrates the Failure of Easy Money

by John Rubino
Dollar Collapse

After three decades of epic deficit spending and three years of extraordinary money creation, Japan’s economy is enjoying a rollicking inflationary boom. Just kidding. Exactly the opposite is happening:

Japan households’ inflation expectations hit three-year low – BOJ

(Reuters) – Japanese households’ sentiment worsened in the three months to March and their expectations of inflation fell to levels before the Bank of Japan deployed its massive asset-buying programme three years ago, a central bank survey showed.

The survey’s bleaker outlook keeps alive expectations of additional monetary stimulus even as BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda maintained his optimism that the world’s third-largest economy was recovering moderately.

Continue Reading at DollarCollapse.com…

Why Aren’t We Talking About a Four-Candidate Race for the Presidency: Two Party Hacks and Trump and Sanders as Independents?

by Charles Hugh Smith
Of Two Minds

The American public deserves the opportunity to vote for Sanders, Trump, and whatever hacks the two elitist war parties select.

If the Republican Party chooses a candidate other than Donald Trump at its convention, the possibility that Trump would declare a third-party/ independent candidacy is already mainstream. This would create a three-candidate race for the presidency in which the independent actually has a chance to win, given the monumental disgust of the voting public with the corrupt, elitist and profoundly venal parties.

[…] So what’s to keep Bernie Sanders from declaring as an independent candidate for the presidency? While Sanders has mouthed the expected platitudes about supporting Democratic Party hack Hillary Clinton, his ardent supporters–who almost by definition have zero loyalty to the elitist, permanent-war-is-wonderful Democratic party–might insist Bernie hold true to his independent roots and run as an independent.

Continue Reading at OfTwoMinds.com…