from Kitco NEWS
Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investor Letter – First Quarter 2016
by John Hathaway
Tocqueville
The dollar price of gold rallied 16.14 percent during the first quarter while gold mining equities rallied 53.45 percent (XAU Gold & Silver Index). It appears to us that the nearly five-year decline in the precious metals sector has concluded, and that the stage is set for a renewed advance towards all-time highs. What is the investment rationale to support our view?
1. The war on savings and capital being conducted by central banks seems likely to drive investors towards alternative safe assets. We believe that prominent among the available options is gold.
2. At the zero interest-rate boundary, bonds are no longer capable of providing a stability hedge for equity portfolios; investors may look to gold to fill that vacuum.
3. A deepening shortage of physical gold means that even modest capital inflows into precious metals should drive an outsized price response.
The Most Overhyped Non-Event in Economic History
by Andrew Hoffman
Miles Franklin
It’s early Thursday morning, here at my article-writing home-away-from-home, Denver International Airport (featuring the “horsie with crazy eyes,” according to Sylvie) and I’d like to start by once and for all, ending the “debate” over whether Precious Metal prices are manipulated. I mean, just how much of a pariah can you be, when as the world’s largest derivatives holder, the “powers that be” still allow you to be caught “fixing” (i.e, suppressing) silver prices?
“Deutsche Bank AG has agreed to settle U.S. litigation over allegations it illegally conspired with the Bank of Nova Scotia and HSBC Holdings Plc to fix silver prices at the expense of investors, a court filing on Wednesday showed.”
Miami Real Estate is Melting Down
by Robert Frank
CNBC.com
The Miami real estate slowdown is becoming a meltdown — with the most expensive areas getting hit hardest.
The number of sales and prices in posh Miami Beach — home to many of the city’s most expensive and highest-profile properties — fell during the first quarter, according to a new report. Meanwhile, inventory soared by roughly a third compared with the prior-year quarter.
The report, released Thursday by Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants, found the average sale price in Miami Beach and the nearby Barrier Islands fell 7.5 percent year over year to $905,252. The median sale price fell 6.6 percent year over year to $408,750.
Singapore Adopts 2008 Crisis Policy as Growth Grinds to Halt
by David Roman
Bloomberg.com
Singapore’s central bank unexpectedly eased its monetary stance, adopting a policy last used during the 2008 global financial crisis, as economic growth in the trade-dependent city-state ground to a halt.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore moved to a neutral policy of zero percent appreciation in the exchange rate, causing the local dollar to slide and dragging down currencies across Asia-Pacific. The surprise announcement came two days after the International Monetary Fund warned of the risk of negative shocks to the global economy.
“The MAS is delivering a strong message by returning policy to the post-Great Financial Crisis settings,” Sean Callow, a Sydney-based currency strategist with Westpac Banking Corp., said by e-mail. “The surprise move indicates a gloomy outlook for regional trade.”
Deutsche Bank Admits It Rigged Gold Prices, Agrees To Expose Other Manipulators
from Zero Hedge
Well, that didn’t take long.
Earlier today when we reported the stunning news that DB has decided to “turn” against the precious metals manipulation cartel by first settling a long-running silver price fixing lawsuit which in addition to “valuable monetary consideration” said it would expose the other banks’ rigging having also “agreed to provide cooperation to plaintiffs, including the production of instant messages, and other electronic communications, as part of the settlement” we said “since this is just one of many lawsuits filed over the past two years in Manhattan federal court in which investors accused banks of conspiring to rig rates or prices in financial and commodities markets, we expect that now that DB has “turned” that much more curious information about precious metals rigging will emerge, and will confirm what the “bugs” had said all along: that the precious metals market has been rigged all along.”
The Answer to “Unfair” Tax Breaks Is More Tax Breaks
by Ryan McMaken
Mises.org
Some myths about taxes and taxpayers never go away. Among them is the myth that tax breaks amount to “subsidies.”
Laurence Vance recently pointed out a particularly oblivious claim made recently by a staffer at National Public Radio who claimed that a tax deducation is the “financial equivalent of the government writing people a check every year.”
In no way, Vance correctly points out, is a tax deduction anything at all like the government writing checks to people.
Freedom Breathes Through Tax Loopholes
Matthew McCaffrey explains further:
The Dow Theory Just Flashed a Buy Signal – Or Did It?
Dow Theorists Jack Schannep and Richard Moroney disagree on whether moves have been large and significant to qualify
by Mark Hulbert
Market Watch
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — A buy signal may have just been flashed by the oldest stock-market timing system that’s still in widespread use today.
I’m referring, of course, to the Dow Theory, which dates back to the early decades of the last century. The reason I say that this market timing model “may” have just turned bullish is that the Dow Theorists I monitor don’t always agreed on how to apply it — and now is just such a time.
Such ambiguity exists because the Dow Theory’s creators never codified it into a clear and precise set of rules. It instead was introduced in dribs and drabs over three decades in editorials in The Wall Street Journal, written by then-editor William Peter Hamilton.
According to Hamilton, the stock market must jump over three hoops to reverse a sell signal and flash a buy signal:
The Fed WANTS Inflation
by Graham Summers
Gold Seek
The Fed has unleashed inflation.
And it wants more of it.
From mid-2014 until early 2016, commodities as an asset class, collapsed some 45%.
[…] This was an all out bloodbath. But despite this collapse in prices, inflation began to perk up.
The IMF’s Special Drawing Rights, the RMB and Gold
by Stefan Wieler
Gold Money
Introduction
At the latest G20 meeting, China’s central bank vowed to promote the use of SDRs in the Chinese economy, just four months after the IMF decided to include the RMB as part of the currency basket underlying SDRs. Adding the RMB marks only the 5th time the Fund changed the composition of the basket since formally moving away from a gold based system in 1974. However, as history shows, the SDR has been unable to maintain value as gold has. Adding the RMB to the basket will hardly change that.
Stunning Map: Oil Supply Glut Leads To Massive Tanker Traffic Jam: “Would Stretch For 25 Miles”
by Mac Slavo
SHTF Plan
While oil prices have jumped about 50% in recent weeks, there appears to be no real reason for the move other than pure speculation and billion-dollar market cash infusions from unknown plunge protection teams.
But as the mainstream media continues to tout non-existent reduction agreements between oil producing nations, the following evidence suggests that the world remains awash in oil, so much so that there is no space to store it… anywhere on earth.
The following report from Zero Hedge explains just how much oil is currently sitting in limbo while suppliers try to figure out what to do with it:
Botched Panama Papers Leak Has Unintended Consequences for the Elite
by Daily Bell Staff
The Daily Bell
Panama Papers reveal London as center of ‘spider’s web’ … As-well as shining a spotlight on the secret financial arrangements of the rich and powerful, the so-called Panama Papers have laid bare London’s role as a vital organ of the world’s tax-haven network. – JapanTimes
The Panama Papers leak has “revealed” London at the center of a “spider’s web,” according to this article, above. It is further evidence that the release of private information was a botched job.
Further down in this article, we’ll discuss the unraveling political system in the US, which is now clearly revealing that parties choose candidates not primaries. Taken together, these developments show once again the impact that the Internet is having on hitherto private structures and their propaganda.
Liberty Defined
by Chris Campbell
Laissez Faire Books
What is liberty?
A quick Google search will tell you this:
[…] While even Google’s definition of liberty is fairly free of ambiguity, ask any politician of their definition… any leader of the “free world”… and we doubt it’ll have quite the same flavor.
“More or less every modern politician,” says Paul Rosenberg on Freeman’s Perspective, “talks about ‘freedom’ or ‘liberty.’ Actually, they don’t talk about it as much as they use it as a magic incantation. They go on at length about ‘our free country,’ but if you could get them to define freedom, that definition would be something along the lines of ‘what we have.’
The Big Four Economic Indicators – Downtrend From 2014 Peak Continues
by Doug Short
Financial Sense
Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their method.
There is, however, a general belief that there are four big indicators that the committee weighs heavily in their cycle identification process. They are:
- Nonfarm Employment
- Industrial Production
- Real Retail Sales
- Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Receipts)
The Canadian Shield Could Host the Next Bonanza Discovery: Eric Lemieux
by Patrice Fusillo
The Gold Report
Gold supply is getting tighter, deposits of quality are getting rarer and the project development timeline is getting longer. Enter Canada. The Canadian Shield still offers the possibility of break-out discoveries, says PearTree Securities analyst Eric Lemieux. The recent spate of M&A activity points to the potential of the region, and Lemieux discusses several companies that are well positioned to add value.
The Gold Report: In the month since the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada convention (PDAC), the markets have been holding steady. Has the “PDAC curse”—where mining equities fall after the PDAC convention—been broken?
Eric Lemieux: I hope so, although it really is still too early to say. Perhaps at this stage, with the drop in copper prices and gold in the $1,240/ounce range, we’re in a gray zone. However, there’s a certain sense of optimism based on the fact that we’re in the last amplitudes of a bottom. Certainly medium fundamentals look interesting. Gold supply is getting tighter, deposits of quality are getting rarer, and there is a lengthening timeline for the development of projects because of more stringent permitting and social acceptability elements.
In Re: London Silver Fixing Ltd. – Antitrust Litigation
by California Lawyer
TF Metals Report
The essence of this pending litigation is this:
<CaL’s analysis and commentary is inserted between paragraphs and bolded.>
“Plaintiffs in the Silver Fixing litigation — entities that purchased physical silver or financial instruments tied to the price of silver — allege that, until very recently, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and the Bank of Nova Scotia (collectively “Defendant Banks”) participated in a pricesetting panel called The London Silver Market Fixing, Ltd.,1 which set global silver prices. Plaintiffs further allege that, via their participation in this price-setting panel, Defendant Banks conspired to manipulate the prices for physical silver and silver derivatives in violation of the federal commodity and antitrust laws. In essence, all of the putative class members in [this case] allege financial harm stemming from Defendants’ manipulation of the market for silver via the London Silver Fixing.” (Letter to court from attorneys for Plaintiffs).
Timber: The One Asset Crushing Stocks
by Paul Mampilly
The Sovereign Investor
When you’re hot on Wall Street, you are treated like a rock star. At a hedge fund investor conference in San Francisco, I was mobbed by people who wanted to speak to me. I was put up at the Fairmont Hotel, where suites go for $3,000 a night. At the fanciest restaurants in the capitals of the world — Geneva, Paris, Frankfurt — big-money investors would hang on my every word. Investors sent me $1,000 bottles of champagne, Tiffany vases, gold cufflinks and cases of wine as gifts.
Our hedge fund was up 20% for five years straight. Every big-money investor craves this kind of high-level, consistent performance. However, it’s rare. And when investors find it, they flood you with money.
Billions and billions of dollars. Our hedge fund grew from $1.5 billion in 2006 to over $5 billion by 2008. Our asset management company, which had about $5 billion under management in 2006, grew to over $25 billion in assets by 2008.
This Ticking Time-Bomb is Now Threatening the World Financial System
from King World News
This ticking time-bomb is now threatening the world financial system.
Here is a portion of today’s note from Art Cashin: I Owe You One – In this week’s edition of “Outside the Box”, my friend, John Mauldin, featured the latest report from Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management. It is an eye-opening piece on the topic of debt.
To whet your appetite, here is a quote from John’s introduction:
The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China have been unable to gain traction with their monetary policies….
Ted Cruz, Dildo Police Officer
by Karl Denninger
Market-Ticker.org
Yes folks, Cruz is an outright religious nutcase. He is in fact no different than a radical Islamist in this regard, in that he believes and will in fact go to court to force you to behave in the privacy of your own home as he believes you should.
He will also use the law to enforce that if you refuse.
This isn’t speculation, it’s fact based on his previous acts, not just statements.
Hillary Clinton Accused of Using “Static Noise Machine” at Colorado Fundraiser
by Michael Krieger
Liberty Blitzkrieg
[…] Typical Clinton shadiness. Gawker is reporting the following:
Last week, a local Denver journalist named Stan Bush reported that Hillary Clinton’s campaign appeared to be using a hidden static noise machine to prevent reporters and other passerby from hearing the candidate’s stump speech at an outdoor fundraiser held at the private residence of Colorado’s governor, John Hickenlooper. The general allegation hung in odd kind of limbo, however, since Bush managed to record the machine’s (inherently indiscriminate) sound but was unable to photograph the actual device, while Clinton’s press shop ignored reporters’ attempts to confirm the machine’s existence. Meanwhile, the underlying question went unanswered: Why was Clinton using a static noise machine in the first place?
Roy Sebag & Josh Crumb Interview with Real Vision TV
by Roy Sebag
Gold Money
Roy Sebag, CEO of GoldMoney and Founder of BitGold, and Josh Crumb, CSO of Goldmoney and Co-Founder of BitGold, recently sat down to talk with Real Vision Media.
Roy and Josh explain how ZIRP prevents retail investors from preserving their wealth, and the foundations of how BitGold uses blockchain inspired technology to provide a currency alternative, backing POS transactions with secure, physical gold. If you don’t have a subscription there is a free trial available.
Why is This Country So Poor?
by Simon Black
Sovereign Man
“What is it about this place that makes it so poor?”
It was a simple question posed to me by a friend as we walked the streets of Managua, Nicaragua earlier this week.
Nicaragua is a lovely place. But it’s poor. Very poor. It’s the least developed economy in Central America… and that’s saying something.
But it’s worth considering: what makes an economy like Nicaragua so poor? And what makes others so wealthy?
The Winter of Discontent
by Peter Schiff
Euro Pacific Capital
The Winter of 2015-2016, which came to an end a few weeks ago, has been officially designated as the mildest in the U.S. in 121 years according to NOAA. While this fact will certainly add a major talking point in the global warming debate, it should also be front and center in the current economic discussion. The fact that it isn’t is testament to the blatantly self-serving manner in which economic cheerleaders blame the weather when it’s convenient, but ignore it when it’s not. If economists were consistent (and that’s a colossal “if”), the good weather would be taken as a reason to believe the economy is weaker than is being reported.
The two previous winters were much harsher. 2013-2014 brought the infamous “Polar Vortex,” an unusual descent of frigid polar air that brought temperatures down significantly throughout most of the United States. The next winter was almost as bad, with colder than usual temperatures combined with record snowfalls in much of the country.
The Latest Updates from Martin Armstrong – 2016.04.14
by Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics
Cruz losing Support of Fellow Republicans
A Song That Explains Life & the Battle we All Face Even as a Society
Market Talk as of Close of April 13th, 2016
Bank Stocks – Stay FAR FAR AWAY
SEC & NYC Going Crazy on Contempt of Court Stay Out of NYC
llinois to Tax Drivers 1.5 cents per mile they drive
The Fed Sends a Frightening Letter to JPMorgan and Corporate Media Yawns
by Pam Martens and Russ Martens
Wall Street on Parade
Yesterday the Federal Reserve released a 19-page letter that it and the FDIC had issued to Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, on April 12 as a result of its failure to present a credible plan for winding itself down if the bank failed. The letter carried frightening passages and large blocks of redacted material in critical areas, instilling in any careful reader a sense of panic about the U.S. financial system.
A rational observer of Wall Street’s serial hubris might have expected some key segments of this letter to make it into the business press. A mere eight years ago the United States experienced a complete meltdown of its financial system, leading to the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. President Obama and regulators have been assuring us over these intervening eight years that things are under control as a result of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation. But according to the letter the Fed and FDIC issued on April 12 to JPMorgan Chase, the country’s largest bank with over $2 trillion in assets and $51 trillion in notional amounts of derivatives, things are decidedly not under control.