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Global Recovery ‘Peaked’ in 2013 and Has Been Declining Ever Since As Measured by PMI

from Jesse’s Café Américain

Not everyone can become a waiter or a bartender. And as more disposable income accrues to the top, and is deployed in luxury goods and the pursuit of rents and acquisition, the rest have lest to spend for goods that stimulate the aggregate demand.

As you know I would ascribe this slow decay in economic activity to the ‘top down’ monetary stimulus being deployed by the Western central banks, and their overattention to the well being of the largely broken and misdirected financial sector that was in fact primarily responsible for the crash in 2008. That they corrupted the regulatory process along the way for their own benefit is an ancillary cause at best.

As I have been saying since roughly 2008, the Banks must be restrained, and the financial system reformed, with balance restored to the economy, before there can be any sustainable recovery.

Continue Reading at JessesCrossroadsCafe.Blogspot.ca…

Massive Earthquake Looming as Pressure Builds on San Andreas Fault: “Wound Very, Very Tight”

by Mac Slavo
SHTF Plan

Any number of disaster scenarios would seemingly bring the U.S. to a grinding halt, and wreak untold havoc upon the vulnerable population.

Worse, there seems to be an uncomfortable sense that a major event like that is long overdue.

Surely one of the most devastating would be a major earthquake along the San Andreas fault line. For several years now, experts have warned that the stress levels have reached a dangerous threshold and that the “big one” could be coming to Southern California… any time now.

Scientists have issued a dire warning that Southern California and the Los Angeles area could be in the path of a major earthquake of 7.0 magnitude or greater.

In the worst case scenario, it could destroy the Los Angeles metro area and rupture hundreds of miles of land in Southern California. A 7.9 earthquake took place back in 1857.

Continue Reading at SHTFPlan.com…

About Those Record Auto Sales: Let’s Communicate

by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk

On May 3, industry analysts are pumped up April 2016 to be the best April in history for car sales. Some analysts expect record sales for the entire year.

I doubted that then and I doubt that even more now.

Please consider an email from “FW” a 15-year electrician at Ford who chimes in with some relevant anecdotes and a more recently, a communication bulletin from the plant where he works.

On April 27, “FW” pinged me with these comments …

Continue Reading at MishTalk.com…

Optical Illusion / Optical Truth

by Ben Hunt PhD
Financial Sense

Edward Tufte is a personal and professional hero of mine. Professionally, he’s best known for his magisterial work in data visualization and data communication through such classics as The Visual Display of Quantitative Information (1983) and its follow-on volumes, but less well-known is his outstanding academic work in econometrics and statistical analysis. His 1974 book Data Analysis for Politics and Policy remains the single best book I’ve ever read regarding teaching the power and pitfalls of statistical analysis. If you’re fluent in the language of econometrics (this is not a book for the uninitiated) and now you want to say something meaningful and accurate using that language, you should read this book (available for $2 in Kindle form on Tufte’s website). Personally, Tufte is a hero to me for escaping the ivory tower, pioneering what we know today as self-publishing, making a lot of money in the process, and becoming an interesting sculptor and artist. That’s my dream. That one day when the Great Central Bank Wars of the 21st century are over, I will be allowed to return, Cincinnatus-like, to my Connecticut farm where I will write short stories and weld monumental sculptures in peace. That and beekeeping.

Continue Reading at FinancialSense.com…

T-TIP: Salvation or Trash-Tip?

by Alasdair MacLeod
Gold Money

President Obama weighed into the Brexit debate on his recent visit to the UK, saying that if Britain left the EU, she would be at the back of the queue when it comes to a free trade agreement.

If this was intended to scare voters into voting Remain, the tactic seems to have failed, with the subsequent swing in the polls favouring Brexit. However, this intervention has drawn widespread attention to the current trade negotiations between the US and the EU, known as T-TIP.

It stands for Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and is intended to be a free trade and investment agreement between the United States and the (currently) 28 member states of the EU. It makes eminent sense to have free trade between these two economic powers, which account for over 50% of world GDP.

Continue Reading at GoldMoney.com…

China’s Latest Export Boom: Fake Gold Coins

by Kathy Kristof
CBS News

As investors become increasingly nervous about the stock market, the price of gold has been swinging up, rising roughly 20 percent since just the beginning of the year. But if you buy your gold in coin form, you need to be wary. Chinese crooks are minting fakes in large quantities and selling them on the Internet.

And unlike the fakes of yesteryear, which were often made of precious metals but altered to appear more rare, many of today’s fakes are coins that are commonly sold for their precious metal content. But these are constructed of cheap alloys like tungsten, lead and zinc, with just enough gold to give them color.

Continue Reading at CSBNews.com…

Gold Investors Bet on Resilient Rally as Open Interest Surges

by Luzi-Ann Javier
Bloomberg.com

Add a jump in open interest to signs that gold’s rally may persist after the best start to a year in a decade.

Open interest, a tally of outstanding contracts in Comex futures, rose 3.1 percent to 565,774 on Tuesday, the highest since January 2011. The same day, investors boosted holdings in exchange-traded funds backed by the metal for a sixth straight session to the highest since December 2013. The increases come after hedge funds boosted net-long positions in bullion futures and options more than five-fold since early February.

[…] Gold futures climbed 20 percent this year in the best start since 2006, helped by speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will be slow to tighten monetary policy amid global risks to growth and as lending rates in the euro area and Japan fell below zero. Low borrowing costs are a boon to gold and other precious metals because they don’t offer yields or dividends.

Continue Reading at Bloomberg.com…

Don’t Trust Politics to Change Your Life, Trust Yourself

by Daily Bell Staff
The Daily Bell

Glenn Reynolds: Don’t let U.S. become next Rome … Entrenched political elites will sacrifice anything to retain power, including their own country…. As you vote, remember that the more resources you put under the control of the political class, the more likely it is that things will eventually go bad. Politicians seldom look past the next election, and they’re willing to sacrifice pretty much anything to hang on. And that “pretty much anything” includes you. – USA Today

Glenn Reynolds is law professor and member of the USA Today editorial board. He makes good points in this just-published editorial, as you can see above.

But the reality goes far deeper than that.

The main idea Reynolds presents is that the more control voters give politicians, the more resources they have at hand to abuse.

In other words, politicians will invariably use the power they have to enrich themselves and their cronies at your expense.

Continue Reading at TheDailyBell.com…

[Infographic] The Number of Americans Renouncing Just Keeps Going Up

by Simon Black
Sovereign Man

Today the IRS published the latest figures on renunciation, showing that yet another 1,158 Americans have renounced their citizenship in the first quarter of 2016.

While this may not be setting a record for a single quarter, the trend is quite clear.

[…] Our goal is simple: To help you achieve personal liberty and financial prosperity no matter what happens.

Multiple times every week, we help over 100,000 Sovereign Man subscribers who are taking their family’s liberty and prosperity into their own hands with our free publication, Notes From The Field.

Continue Reading at SovereignMan.com…

Monetary Liquifaction, Gold and the Time of the Vulture

by Darryl Robert Schoon
Gold Seek

Liquifaction: … 3: conversion of soil into a fluidlike mass during an earthquake or other seismic event, 4: inability of flooded capital markets to absorb additional capital without destabilizing paper assets, e.g. stocks, bonds, currencies, etc., 5. a monetary phenomena associated with the collapse of capital markets.

[…] Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomena caused by an increase in the money supply, the greater the increase, the greater the inflation. If the money supply expands with sufficient rapidity, inflation becomes hyperinflation and paper money loses all value.

[…] THE GREAT MODERATION i.e. THE GREAT DELUSION
What you don’t know explains what you don’t understand

In 1971, when the US ended the convertibility of the US dollar to gold, the only limit on the bankers’ ability to print money ad infinitum—monetary gold reserves—was removed. This led to an immediate spike in inflation ending in an inflationary surge—from 3.3% in 1971 to 14.4% in 1980, a 436% increase. Economists called it the Great Inflation.

Continue Reading at GoldSeek.com…

Want To Keep It Off? Low Carb, High Fat

by Karl Denninger
Market-Ticker.org

And the hits keep coming...

Conclusion Among overweight and obese young adults compared with pre–weight-loss energy expenditure, isocaloric feeding following 10% to 15% weight loss resulted in decreases in REE and TEE that were greatest with the low-fat diet, intermediate with the low–glycemic index diet, and least with the very low-carbohydrate diet.

Explanation: REE is Resting Energy Expenditure and TEE is Total Energy Expenditure.

A decreased REE and TEE will make your weight loss (and maintaining it) much harder, as was seen on “The Greatest Loser”, which I wrote about recently.

Continue Reading at Market-Ticker.org…

Euro Collapsing Thanks to Another Brain-Dead EU Proposal

by Martin Armstrong
Armstrong Economics

Merkel’s failed refugee policy is destroying the fabric of Europe and raising international concerns that Europeans may need visas because she has introduce the prospect of ISIS using Europe as a stepping to get into the USA. Now, Merkel’s policy is forcing other countries to take refugees. The European Commission now wants to compel European member states to accept refugees by imposing a fine of 250,000 euros per applicant they deny.

Instead of admitting a huge mistake, they are creating a mandatory option that will only bring in more “refugees”. About 80% of the “refugees” are not even from Syria. Merkel’s policy is tearing Europe apart at the seams. Unless they deal with the issue directly and publicly by stating ALL refugees will be turned away, the crisis will only get worse. These are people migrating to Europe from northern Africa and other places who are using this policy as a gateway to the promised land.

Continue Reading at ArmstrongEconomics.com…

Central Bank Roundup: More Rates Moving Toward Zero

by Ryan McMaken
Mises.org

Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the country’s central bank, lowered its key interest rate from 2.0 percent to 1.75 percent, which is a record low.

Australia is about equal to the State of New York in terms of both population and the size of its economy, so it’s not an irrelevant economy, and the Australian bank’s latest move is just another example of the trend among the world’s advanced economies to push interest rates down to record lows.

Last month, New Zealand’s central bank also moved its target rate down to a record low of 2.25 percent. although New Zealand’s economy is much smaller than Australia’s — about equal to Kentucky’s economy — it’s just yet another high-income country where the central bank has intervened in what will be shown to be a vain attempt to prop up a stagnating economy.

Continue Reading at Mises.org…

Sharia Gold Standard – $2 Trillion In Assets “Could Send Price Soaring”

by Mark O’Byrne
GoldCore

The coming ‘sharia gold standard’ or shariah compliant gold could lead to a very significant source of new demand for physical gold coins and bars in the Islamic world. It is believed that this will contribute to much higher prices and gold “soaring” as some of the $2 trillion of assets held in Islamic financial institutions are allocated to the very small physical global gold market.

The Islamic finance entry into gold market could definitely shake the gold market as Islamic financial institutions around the world, which hold around $2 trillion in assets and are expected to double that asset base up to 2020, would certainly unleash large funds to participate in the Shariah-compliant gold trade” according to the Gulf Times:

“On the outlook for new investment opportunities, the rapidly growing Islamic finance industry has set sight on the gold market as initiatives are underway to establish a new standard to make the metal tradable under Shariah finance rules, eliminating disputes among scholars whether gold is to be treated as a currency or as a commodity.

Continue Reading at GoldGore.com…

The Death Knell of the Constitutional Republic

by Grayson Schultze
The Daily Bell

The president claims that Congress’s authorizations in 2001 and 2002 for the wars against Al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein can be stretched to cover his current campaign [against ISIS]. – The New York Times

The U.S. Constitution is gone. Kaput. For years it stood as the bedrock of a republic that kept its government chained. For years the constitution limited government intervention, letting the free market operate instead of domestic, well-connected crony business interests.

Likewise, elected leaders consulted the constitution when government intervention abroad was considered. There once was a time in America when Congress debated the merits and risks of a government’s most pressing issue: war.

In these days of past, Congress – fulfilling their constitutional duties set forth in Article I, Section 8 – would be the ones to declare war.

Continue Reading at TheDailyBell.com…

Surprise! Baltic Dry Index Plunges Most Since November As Commodity Bubble Bursts

from Zero Hedge

Who could have seen this coming? Remember a week ago when TV entertainers crowed about the surge in The Baltic Dry Freight Index was a “clear signal” that ‘China is back’ baby and that escape velocity growth was just around the corner as global growth was destined to pick up…

Well, just as we warned very explicitly, the ramp in the index merely reflected the frenzied speculation in industrial metals by the Chinese and as authorities have cracked down on that idiocy, so the Baltic Dry has plunged by the most since November… as real demand punches back.

Continue Reading at ZeroHedge.com…

Is a Cash Ban and Carry Tax Coming to the US?

by Graham Summers
Gold Seek

Europe has banned the use of €500 bills.

The reason?

They claim these bills are used in money laundering and for drugs. And if you believe that is the concern, you probably believe the earth is flat.

The fact of the matter is that Europe is now the center for misguided Central Planning for monetary policy. ECB President Mario Draghi has cut interest rates not once, not twice, not even thrice, but FOUR times into NIRP.

The end result has been two items:

Continue Reading at GoldSeek.com…

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Warns Brexit Could Hit Foreign Investment

by Chris Papadopoullos
Telegraph.co.uk

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has urged British voters to back staying in the EU, adding to the chorus of international voices against so-called Brexit.

“Japan very clearly would prefer Britain to remain within the EU,” Mr Abe said at a press conference with Prime Minister David Cameron.

“British membership is also best for Japanese investors within the UK,” he added.

“Many Japanese companies set up their operations in the UK precisely because the UK is a gateway to the EU.

Continue Reading at Telegraph.co.uk…

It’s the Debt, Stupid!

by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk

For those still wondering why the global economy is struggling, the simple answer is “It’s the debt, stupid.”

We will return to the global economy in a moment, but first consider the plight of Greece.

A detailed study shows that of €215.9 billion in Greek aid, only €9.7 billion went to Greece. The rest went to banks and other creditors.

Greece still has to pay back the rest, and is struggling to do so.

Continue Reading at MishTalk.com…

Gold Futures Signal No Letup in Best Start Since 2006: Chart

by Luzi-Ann Javier
Bloomberg.com

For investors skeptical that gold’s rally will persist after the best start to a year since 2006, one indicator may help ease their concerns. Open interest, a tally of outstanding contracts in Comex futures, rose to the highest in five years on Monday, showing traders are expecting further increases, according to George Gero, a managing director at RBC Wealth Management in New York. Bullion is gaining more appeal against interest-bearing assets after lending rates fell below zero in Europe and Japan and the Federal Reserve signaled a slow pace of monetary tightening.

Continue Reading at Bloomberg.com…

‘Low-Interest-Rate’ Trump Wants to Replace Yellen, Refinance U.S. Debt

Republican presidential candidate wants to rebuild U.S. infrastructure

by Steve Goldstein
Market Watch

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Thursday positioned himself on the far left of the political spectrum on fiscal issues, coming out for low interest rates, against a strong dollar and a more aggressive managing of U.S. debt.

In a wide-ranging phone conversation with CNBC, Trump said he would replace Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen when her term expires in 2018, though he didn’t really offer up any criticism of her.

“I have nothing against Janet Yellen whatsoever, she’s very capable person. But she’s not a Republican,” Trump said. “When her time is up I would most likely replace because of the fact it would be appropriate.

“She is a low interest rate person, she’s always been a low-interest-rate person, and let’s be honest, I’m a low-interest-rate person,” Trump added.

Continue Reading at MarketWatch.com…

Housing Recovery – Not So Much

by Lance Roberts
Real Investment Advice

“Everyone wants a house, and that’s a big problem.

We’ve noted in the past that there is a substantial issue in the housing market right now. Too few homes are being built for the number of people that want to move into them, thus driving up prices and keeping some lower-end or first-time buyers out of the market.

It is quite amazing that amount of optimism surrounding the housing market which has yet to recover substantially from post-financial crisis lows given the exorbitant amount of monetary stimulants injected into it.

The chart below shows the Total Housing Market Activity Index which is a composite of new and existing home sales, permits and starts. Yes, housing has recovered, but remains well below levels seen in 1999.

Continue Reading at RealInvestmentAdvice.com…

The World Now Faces Two Horrific Nightmares

from King World News

With gold, silver and the dollar all trading higher, a couple of greats in the business warned about two horrific nightmares that the world now faces.

Bill Gross Warns Robotization Of The World To Create Massive Job Losses

Here is a portion of today’s note from Art Cashin: And He Wasn’t Even At The Dinner – Wednesday, I wrote about the potentially transformational round of robotics and automation that we are likely entering into. That discussion had been sparked at my dinner with David Kotok, et. al, a little over a week ago.

Some friends who read those comments pointed me to the latest Outlook from the great Bill Gross. He had a somewhat similar take on the topic. Here is a bit:

Continue Reading at KingWorldNews.com…