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The Labor Market Suggests a Recession Could Be Coming Soon

by Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives
Business Insider

With the surge in last week’s new unemployment claims, the largest in 65 weeks, and the fourth smallest number of monthly new nonfarm jobs since January 2014, today’s updated of the Labor Market Conditions Index takes on special significance.

The Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) is a relatively recent indicator developed by Federal Reserve economists to assess changes in the labor market conditions. It is a dynamic factor model of labor market indicators, essentially a diffusion index subject to extensive revisions based on nineteen underlying indicators in nine broad categories (see the table at the bottom for details).

Continue Reading at BusinessInsider.com…

China Coal Province GDP Just Enough to Repay Its Miner Debts

by Bloomberg News
Bloomberg.com

Debt of mining companies in China’s leading coal province has ballooned to about the same level as its annual economic output, casting doubt over the ability of the regional authority to backstop their new bonds.

The Shanxi government plans to guarantee note sales from seven coal producers owned by the northern province, people familiar with the matter said earlier this month. Total debt of those firms climbed to 1.2 trillion yuan ($184 billion) at the end of 2015, just 100 billion yuan less than the province’s gross domestic product that year, according to a May 5 report from Citic Securities Co. Shanxi Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group Co., one of the seven firms, had to offer investors nearly double the yield of similarly-rated notes when it sold AAA rated five-year bonds at the end of last month.

Continue Reading at Bloomberg.com…

Spain: Another Hung Election Coming Up

by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk

Current polls in Spain show an outcome nearly identical the December election in which no party or coalition of parties could foster a majority.

In the past week, Podemos managed to form a coalition with leftist parties IU and Confluencias, to possibly become the second largest party in Spain, but that does not change the math.

A poll by Celeste-Tel between May 5 and May 7, as reported by El Economista follows.

Continue Reading at MishTalk.com…

China Inc. Tries to Buy the World, with Impeccable Timing

by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street

King of foreign M&A, at peak prices, funded by state-owned banks.

Not even five-and-a-half months into the year, Chinese mergers & acquisitions in other countries have hit $110.8 billion, nearly four times as much as during the same period last year, and surpassing the total volume of the entire year 2015 ($106.8 billion).

And so China Inc. has become the number one cross-border acquirer for the first time ever, ahead of Canada with $67.7 billion in deals, and the US with $53.1 billion.

Continue Reading at WolfStreet.com…

Rockwell on Rothbard

by Mises Institute
Mises.org

This talk, delivered by Lew Rockwell at a memorial service for Murray Rothbard, gives a great perspective on Rothbard’s life, work, influence, courage, and personality. Especially fascinating is Rockwell’s account of Rothbard’s willingness to defy political boundaries and work with both Left and Right — causing each to believe fervently that he was in the other camp!

His political writings date from the early 1950s, when he wrote for Faith and Freedom, a hard-Right, isolationist publication. In articles on the evils of the military buildup, he warned that American liberty would be sacrificed to the Cold War.

That led to his break with the Buckleyites, who ridiculed him and his ideas. They never took him on directly; they were smarter than that. Instead, they smeared him in private, and tried to deny him publishing and speaking opportunities.

Continue Reading at Mises.org…

Islamic State Buries Alive Dozens of Its Own Soldiers to Stem Soaring Defections

from Zero Hedge

Things are deteriorating fast for the cash-strapped Islamic State.

One month ago we reported that as a result of the collapse of ISIS’ oil trade with Turkey following the relentless bombing of its oil extraction and transportation infrastructure mostly by Russian forces, the money inflows generated by the Islamic State have plunged. “In mid-2015, the Islamic State’s overall monthly revenue was around $80 million” said Ludovico Carlino, senior analyst at IHS, which issues regular reports on IS-controlled territory. Carlino added that “as of March 2016, the Islamic State’s monthly revenue dropped to $56 million.”

Continue Reading at ZeroHedge.com…

Hey Cartel, Was That the Best You Got?

by Andrew Hoffman
Miles Franklin

Do you want bold? Well you’ll get it today – as after 14 years of Cartel-inflicted torture, the “bull market to end all bull markets” has finally arrived, whether Harry Dent, Larry Edelson, Martin Armstrong, and countless “short-term bearish, but long-term bullish” newsletter writers like it. The fact is, the “New York Gold Pool” – like the London Gold Pool in the 1960s, and dozens of failed attempts to suppress real money throughout history – is on its last legs, as the broadest, most destructive fiat Ponzi scheme implodes upon itself. I mean, think about it. What could be more symbolic of how far the “system” has fallen, than one of Brazil’s top soccer stars warning people about coming to Rio for the Olympics – which for the past year, I have said will either not occur, or do so without the majority of scheduled athletes, spectators, and media?

Continue Reading at MilesFranklin.com…

Oil Soars Past $46 to a More Than Six Month High

EIA reports a surprise 3.4 million-barrel fall in crude stockpiles

by Myra P. Saefong, Georgi Kantchev, and Jenny W. Hsu
Market Watch

Oil futures soared past $46 a barrel on Wednesday to settle at their highest level in more than six months.

The climb was supported by a U.S. government report that revealed an unexpected weekly drop in crude inventories and a ninth straight week of falling domestic production.

June West Texas Intermediate crude tacked on $1.57, or 3.5%, to settle at $46.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The settlement was the highest since Nov. 4. July Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange added $2.08, or 4.6%, to end at $47.60 a barrel.

Continue Reading at MarketWatch.com…

“Dear Hillary… I’m Worried”

by Michael Krieger
Liberty Blitzkrieg

[…] Most Hillary Clinton supporters remain stuck in a comical level of denial when it comes to the weakness of their candidate, and the very real threat posed to her by Donald Trump. Damon Linker suffers from no such hangups, and earlier today he expressed his concerns in a powerful article titled simply, Dear Hillary…

Here are a few excerpts:

Continue Reading at LibertyBlitzkrieg.com…

Gold – The Commitments of Traders

by Pater Tenebrarum
Acting Man

Commercial and Non-Commercial Market Participants

The commitments of traders in gold futures are beginning to look a bit concerning these days – we will explain further below why this is so. Some readers may well be wondering why an explanation is even needed. Isn’t it obvious? Superficially, it sure looks that way.

[…] As the following chart of the net position of commercial hedgers illustrates, their position is currently at quite an extended level:

Continue Reading at Acting-Man.com…

The Gold You Should Be Buying

by Jeff D. Opdyke
The Sovereign Investor

My first girlfriend — and we’re talking eighth grade here — was Persian. Maybe that’s why I’ve had such a fascination with the Middle East most of my life.

This fascination manifests itself today through three primary channels: Middle Eastern cuisine, Middle Eastern travel (I’m trying to arrange a research trip to Iran at the moment, with a side trip just for giggles to Kabul, Afghanistan) and ancient coins from Middle Eastern empires.

You can guess, probably, that this is a story about coins.

In particular, it’s about two gold coins that I recently purchased in London … and why ancient coins such as these not only represent great value in the market today, but they’re also one of the best assets you can own in a world where interest rates will remain low well into the next decade and, here in the U.S., could slip into negative territory in coming months.

Continue Reading at TheSovereignInvestor.com…

China’s Landing Will Not End Softly

by Daily Bell Staff
The Daily Bell

Why China Is Prone to Bubbles … The only sure way for China to prevent new bubbles is to tighten credit, slow money growth and allow risk to price assets properly. If the government keeps stepping in to prevent falling prices and to bail out banks or other investors, the possibility of loss is discounted. The probability of an asset crunch like the ones Japan experienced in the 1990s and the U.S. in 2009 remains low for now, in part because of all that liquidity. But the risks are rising every day. – Bloomberg

This Bloomberg opinion piece repeats the propaganda that China’s leaders have created a rational economy. The second-largest economy in the world can therefore be manipulated into prosperity with the right moves.

You can see from the excerpt above that the “sure way” for China to avoid an “asset crunch” involves a decision on the part of government officials not to support bankrupt facilities.

Continue Reading at TheDailyBell.com…

Overpopulation? Economic Ripple Effect From Fewer Babies: “Market Is Not Going to Grow”

by Mac Slavo
SHTF Plan

How severe has the economic recession since 2007 been? How thin the recovery?

Enough that the birth rate, which partially reflects financial stability vs. stress, has fallen off more dramatically than at any other time in American history, and much more than experts even expected.

In fact, the nation has fallen sharply below replacement rate since the time of the 2008 crisis.

The conundrum is that it is a growing population that corresponds with economic growth, and decline inhibits the social signals that encourage more births (like feeling secure enough to afford the extra expenses and effort of a child).

Continue Reading at SHTFPlan.com…

Dear Government: Leave Me the Hell Alone

by Michael Covel
Daily Reckoning

An insidious new fantasy is blooming in Washington, D.C, academia and the media…

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders dreams about it in between bong hits.

It’s lovingly endorsed by “off the wall” left-wing economist Paul Krugman.

And the ultra-progressive Huffington Post calls it “the idea that could revolutionize the 21st century.”

The hype surrounding this “revolutionary” idea will soon be an everyday talking point.

Continue Reading at DailyReckoning.com…

Global Corruption Risks Tipping More Countries Into Crisis, IMF Warns

Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund, will attend the summit, hosted by David Cameron

by Szu Ping Chan
Telegraph.co.uk

Governments must step up their fight against corruption or face damaging economic and social consequences that risks tipping more countries into crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

Ahead of an international anti-corruption summit in London on Thursday, Christine Lagarde outlined the economic costs, noting that the annual cost of bribery alone was estimated to be more than £1 trillion.

“While the direct economic costs of corruption are well known, the indirect costs may be even more substantial and debilitating, leading to low growth and greater income inequality,” she wrote in an essay.

Continue Reading at Telegraph.co.uk…

Gold And Silver Are Being Bought On Every Manipulated Hit

by David Kranzler
Investment Research Dynamics

In real terms, most international fiat currencies could come to be near valueless when measured against gold and silver…And of course that climate will cause the utter collapse of the global stock markets, not to mention impact most severely our societal stability; all as direct consequence of the delusionary monetary practices employed for decades. – Safewealth newsletter

Sell please. I’m buying. There’s a lot of analysis out there with highly flawed assumptions. The biggest problem with this analysis – Seeking Alpha link – is that the author assumes the Fed will raise interest rates. That won’t happen until the entire is system is forced into a reset from a collapse. The Fed knows this and has no interest in hastening that reset.

Continue Reading at InvestmentResearchDynamics.com…

Lars Schall Matterhorn Interview with Ronan Manly

by Ronan Manly
Bullion Star

I was recently interviewed by financial journalist Lars Schall on behalf of Swiss based Matterhorn Asset Management. Our interview covered the German and Russian gold markets, Venezuela’s official gold reserves, the secrecy of the London gold market, and the outlook for the gold price, among a number of other topics. Matterhorn kindly granted me permission to post the audio interview and transcript below. The original interview titled “Economics will dictate that the price of gold is going to rise” can be found on the GoldSwitzerland website.

Continue Reading at BullionStar.com…

What Will The Global Economy Look Like After The ‘Great Reset’?

by Brandon Smith
Alt-Market

A very common phrase used over the past couple years by the International Monetary Fund’s Christine Lagarde as well as other globalist mouthpieces is the “global reset.” Very rarely do these elites ever actually mention any details as to what this “reset” means. But if you take a look at some of my past analysis on the economic endgame, you will find that they do, on occasion, let information slip which gives us a general picture of where they prefer the world be within the next few years or even the next decade.

A few goals are certain and openly admitted. The globalists ultimately want to diminish or erase the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency. They most definitely are seeking to establish the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights basket system as a replacement for the dollar system; this plan was even outlined in the Rothschild run magazine The Economist in 1988. They want to consolidate economic governance, moving away from a franchise system of national central banks into a single global monetary authority, most likely under the IMF or the Bank for International Settlements. And, they consistently argue for the centralization of political power in the name of removing legislative and sovereign barriers to safer financial regulation.

Continue Reading at Alt-Market.com…

Turkey Demands €3 Billion for Refugees, EU Says No

by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk

Devil Demand His Due

Chancellor Merkel’s deal with Turkey is unraveling fast.

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan demands €3 billion for refugees immediately, to do with it what he pleases.

The EU says the money must go through UN agencies, strictly for the benefit of refugees.

The Financial Times reports Turkey Demands EU Hand Over €3bn for Refugees.

Continue Reading at MishTalk.com…

The Propaganda War Against Capitalism

by Ludwig von Mises
Mises.org

The progressive intellectual looks upon capitalism as the most ghastly of all evils. Mankind, he contends, lived rather happily in the good old days. But then, as a British historian said, the Industrial Revolution “fell like a war or a plague” on the peoples. The “bourgeoisie” converted plenty into scarcity. A few tycoons enjoy all luxuries. But, as Marx himself observed, the worker “sinks deeper and deeper” because the bourgeoisie “is incompetent to assure an existence to its slave within his slavery.”

Still worse are the intellectual and moral effects of the capitalist mode of production. There is but one means, the progressive believes, to free mankind from the misery and degradation produced by laissez-faire and rugged individualism, viz., to adopt central planning, the system with which the Russians are successfully experimenting. It is true that the results obtained by the Soviets are not yet fully satisfactory. But these shortcomings were caused only by the peculiar conditions of Russia. The West will avoid the pitfalls of the Russians and will realize the Welfare State without the merely accidental features that disfigured it in Russia and in Hitler Germany.

Continue Reading at Mises.org…

Two Powerful, Simple Facts Giving Gold a Major Boost

by Daily Bell Staff
The Daily Bell

Bloomberg Singer Says Gold Rally Just Beginning as Goldman Sees Losses … Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Singer said that gold’s best quarter in 30 years is probably just the beginning of a rebound as global investors — including Stan Druckenmiller — weigh the ramifications of unprecedented monetary easing on inflation. “It makes a great deal of sense to own gold. Other investors may be finally starting to agree,” Singer wrote in an April 28 letter to clients. – Bloomberg

When we simplify the terms of the argument, we can understand it. In this case, gold’s escalating value against the wounded dollar has little to do with oil prices or China’s economic vitality.

There are two reasons actually. Let’s explain.

Well over $100 trillion has been printed by central banks since 2008 in a vain attempt to generate economic momentum.

Nothing much has happened. Economies around the world are in various stages of recessions and depressions.

Continue Reading at TheDailyBell.com…

Socialism Kills. Just Ask Venezuela…

from DC Whispers

Bernie Sanders is a longtime member of the U.S. Senate – and a devoted socialist.

That itself is a rather frightening reality.

More frightening though, is that Socialist Sanders has amassed millions of devoted supporters throughout the country, primarily younger voters who appear to have little to no understanding that socialism and its even more frightening cousin, communism, have willfully killed more human beings than any other form of government in human history.

Continue Reading at DCWhispers.com…

P.J. O’Rourke: I’m Endorsing Hillary Clinton, the Devil We Know

Sure, Hillary is the crone in crony capitalism. But Donald…

by P.J. O Rourke
The Daily Beast

I endorse Hillary Clinton for president. She is the second worst thing that could happen to America.

I endorse her. And all her pomps. And all her empty promises.

Better the devil you know than the Lord of the Flies on his own 757. Flying to and fro in the earth, with gold-plated seatbelt buckles, talking nativist, isolationist, mercantilist, bigoted, rude, and vulgar crap.

The electorate is possessed by a demon. (Two, if you count Bernie Sanders, the Donald Trump for people still living in their parents’ basements.)

Continue Reading at TheDailyBeast.com…

Robert Kiyosaki Invited Me to Speak to 2,500 People Last Night. Here’s What I Told Them

by Simon Black
Sovereign Man

Right before I walked on stage last night in front of an audience of roughly 2,500 people, I said to myself, ‘This isn’t how I thought my day would turn out…’

Hours before, I met up with Robert Kiyosaki at his hotel in Santiago to have a drink and catch up; he’s in town giving a series of seminars and invited me to come over and hang out for a bit.

After a couple of hours of great conversation, I accompanied him to the venue where the audience was eagerly waiting for him to speak.

Robert’s seminal work Rich Dad, Poor Dad changed so many lives and completely shattered the staid, traditional notions of finance and success.

Continue Reading at SovereignMan.com…