by Brett Golden
Market Watch
There are a number of different schools of thought on positioning your portfolio for momentum crashes caused by the herding effects of overcrowded trades. Historically speaking, it rarely makes sense for investors to move to 100% cash to try and avoid a large S&P 500 drawdown. No one over a market cycle can generate alpha by calling market tops and bottoms.
Although that doesn’t mean investors can’t tactically hedge or better yet raise cash levels when markets become overbought on a technical basis. For our purpose, we measure overbought markets measured by technical metrics on an intermediate-term basis (90 to 250 days).
In our April column, “Is the S&P 500 about to correct,” we discussed using the iVIEWMarkets sentiment indicator to reduce equity exposure at a 60 reading.
Good Day… And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! Before we get started on this journey today through the markets, it’s Pfennig Tradition to start July with Uriah Heep… There I was on a July morning, I was looking for love… With the strength of a new day dawning, and the beautiful sun… I hope you all had a grand Independence Day Holiday Weekend! Ours here in the St. Louis area was a complete washout… But that didn’t stop me from stepping outside yesterday to sing out loud, (I don’t care who hears me!): My country tis of thee, sweet land of liberty, of thee I sing… Land where my fathers die, Land of the Pilgrims pride, from every mountain side, Let Freedom Ring. This year, being an election year, brings out the Patriot in me even more… So, now, let’s move along…
She can’t help herself. Even yesterday, with the political world fixated on her meeting with FBI agents, Hillary Clinton had her flack mislead the public.
Ultimately, the dominance of global capital (the Corporatocracy) is not financial– it’s political.
I still view crude as being in a topping process that would complete an impressive dead-cat bounce from around $32 earlier this year. A neon-yellow flag for bulls is the steady drumbeat of ginned-up “supply-side” stories intended to trigger short-covering rallies: disruptions in Venezuelan output, production slowdowns in Nigeria. That sort of thing. In true bull markets, the story that typically drives oil prices higher for prolonged periods concerns growing demand from an expanding global economy. In this case, however, the global economy has been stagnant for years and shows no signs of improving; and China, the world economy’s 800-pound gorilla, is slumping, significantly softening global demand for energy resources at the margin. Even so, as the chart makes clear, there is still room over the next three to four weeks for a rally to as high as 52.79, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown.
Is it too much to say that since the French Revolution, the left has been the source of virtually all political evils, and continues to be so in our day?
Already in Jubilee 2016, we’ve seen incredible volatility. Brexit is just one example. Within a matter of minutes the British pound soared (when Bremain had the early lead in results) and then had its worst crash in history a few minutes later. The British stock market fell 5.6% quickly after Brexit and has now moved up dramatically in the last week.
Have you seen what the price of silver has been doing? On Monday, it exploded past 20 dollars an ounce, and as I write this article it is sitting at $20.48. Earlier today it actually surged above 21 dollars an ounce for a short time before moving back just a bit. In late March, I told my readers that silver was “
The spot prices scream loud. The Silver breakout will be one to behold in the history books. Silver has broken the shackles of the vile banker cabal. Silver has begun its historic run-up. Silver will capture the world’s attention. The equivalent of the 1980 Hunt Brothers breakout in today’s terms would be $200 per oz. The fundamentals for Silver look better than almost every commodity on earth. Silver has declared independence from the control rooms and their paper gimmicks. The Silver imbalance is monstrous. Gold has broken the gates down with the British Exit vote, pushing its price over the tough stubborn $1300 resistance line. In the following days it has been adding to its gains. But Silver has emerged amidst the political smoke and deceptive din to ride hard through the gate.
Senator Elizabeth Warren is perhaps best known for advancing the narrative that the 2000s housing bubble, collapse, and Great Recession, from which much of the US and the world have yet to fully recover, were the result of “unfettered Wall Street bankers tanking the economy” by “tricking borrowers” into bigger homes and debts than they could afford. This, she asserts, was helped along by the banks’ dramatically increasing lending to “subprime” borrowers, thereby fueling a real estate bubble and then ushering in a “subprime foreclosure crisis” that “spread to” the rest of the economy.
Italy’s Prime Minister, Matteo Renzi, is getting desperate, and with good reason.
Bullion, U.S. stocks and T-Bonds were raring to go Sunday night when their handlers set them loose for a brief romp in holiday-shortened trading.
It’s a funny title for a segment, but it is appropriate. I don’t want to be too flippant with dismissals of inflammatory market events like ‘Brexit’ as simply hype. There is very real macro fundamental shifting going on behind the hype. But in market management, macro fundamentals play out over long stretches of time and nobody knows exactly how all the moving parts are going to affect the subject of the hype (in this case Britain and the EU), let alone the asset markets we are tasked to invest in, trade or avoid.
With the price of gold and silver surging once again, even with the July 4th holiday in the United States, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, and major global events, warned King World News that what is coming will totally devastate the world and the window for investors to save themselves is closing.
There are some “major concerns” about what the scientists at CERN are doing these days. The European Organization for Nuclear Research, more commonly known by the acronym “CERN”, is purposely smashing particles into one another at astonishingly high speeds. Just last month, the researchers working at the facility began a new experiment called “Awake” that uses “plasma wakefields driven by a proton beam” to accelerate charged particles. On June 24th, pictures of some extremely bizarre “portal-shaped cloud formations” were taken in the area just above the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. Could it be possible that there is some sort of a connection between this new “Awake” experiment” and these strange cloud formations? And precisely what do the researchers hope to “awaken” anyway?
Last week the BEA report on U.S. Net International Investment Position showed that US liabilities to the rest of the world rose again.
I keep hearing that the “Chicken Little’s” are once again being proved wrong. We keep being shown chart, after chart, after chart, after chart how the market recovers from perilous sell-offs. This is expressed as “proof” the “market” doesn’t want to go down, and has legs to vault ever higher.