by Wolf Richter
Wolf Street
Recession talk is swirling densely all over the place, so let’s have a look.
What are we looking for? The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which calls the official recessions in the US, has always defined recessions as broad economic downturns that include downturns in the labor market, such as declines in employment and significantly rising unemployment.
Weekly data for unemployment insurance benefits are the earliest indicators of systemic job losses. Among the data sets, weekly continued claims for unemployment benefits, also called “insured unemployment,” is our favorite Recession Indicator. It essentially counts the number of people receiving unemployment benefits after their initial claim.