by Kerry Lutz
FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com
As Bitcoin approaches record highs, investors are asking the same question they asked in 2017 and 2021: Is this another top?
I called both of those previous peaks—not with hype, but with the help of Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model, which has guided my market timing for over a decade. But as I prepare to attend the upcoming Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, I’m not sounding the alarm. This time, the signals are different.
Let’s explore why.
The Conference Effect: When Celebration Precedes Collapse
In speculative markets, major tops don’t form quietly. They arrive with fanfare—high-profile conferences, breathless media coverage, and a sense that “everyone is getting rich.”
That’s exactly what happened in:
- December 2017, when Bitcoin hit nearly $20,000 just weeks before the North American Bitcoin Conference in Miami.
- April 2021, when Bitcoin peaked near $64,000, only to falter shortly after another major conference, again in Miami.
In both cases, those events didn’t cause the crash—but they did signal peak sentiment. Retail investors were all-in, media coverage was euphoric, and smart money used the moment to exit.
How I Called It—Twice
I didn’t rely on gut feeling. My calls in 2017 and 2021 were based on studying investor psychology, capital flows, and Martin Armstrong’s cyclical forecasting models. Armstrong, one of the most controversial and accurate forecasters alive, doesn’t chase headlines. His model is based on time, not emotion.
That insight has been transformative for me—and I document the journey in my latest book, The World According to Martin Armstrong. (Available now on Amazon.)
So… Is This Another Top?
Here’s the twist: I don’t think so.
Yes, Bitcoin is currently trading near $107,000 as of May 21, 2025. That’s an impressive recovery—but we haven’t seen the kind of parabolic move that marked previous cycle tops. Unlike 2017 and 2021, where Bitcoin surged 10x or more within a year, this time it’s up just under 100% from its last peak.
In crypto terms, that’s practically stable.
What’s more, this rally has been driven not by memes or ICOs—but by institutional demand, Bitcoin ETFs, and infrastructure improvements that reduce volatility.
There’s no mania. Not yet.
Why Vegas Still Matters
I’ll be on the ground at the upcoming Las Vegas Bitcoin conference. It’s a key sentiment gauge. If retail investors start piling in, if media coverage becomes breathless, or if “to the moon” replaces actual analysis, I’ll start to worry.
But if the tone remains measured—and the focus stays on long-term adoption—this could be a mid-cycle checkpoint, not a top.
Investor Takeaway: Watch the Crowd, Not the Chart
Major tops don’t come when everyone is cautious. They come when everyone is convinced they can’t lose.
So here’s what to watch:
- Liquidity spikes: Are people throwing money at anything with a blockchain?
- Overconfidence: Are influencers calling for $1 million Bitcoin—soon?
- Media tone: Are outlets treating crypto like a guaranteed path to wealth?
If those red flags show up, start trimming.
If not, sit tight. We may still be in the early innings.
Final Thought
Bitcoin is once again in the spotlight. But without the speculative frenzy of past cycles, this rally feels structurally different.
I’ll be watching Vegas carefully, not just for headlines—but for signs of sentiment extremes. If the crowd gets too loud, it’s time to move quietly.
Until then, I’m holding.
Full Disclosure: I own a Bitcoin position that has become more significant recently.
Regards,
Kerry Lutz
Kerry Lutz is the host of the Financial Survival Network and co-author of The World According to Martin Armstrong, Available now on Amazon.