by Alasdair MacLeod
Gold Money
Following the day-to-day twists and turns of a banking crisis can make us lose sight of the bigger picture. It is tempting to think that the banking authorities are in control, and they will secure the integrity of their commercial banking networks. Unfolding events may or may not prove this to be true.
The bigger picture is that the forty-year decline in interest rates is over, as well as the financial bubble that has built up with it. And we should also be aware that there is a cycle of bank credit, the downturn of which is long overdue. The two have come together to create chaos in credit markets
The reality is that central banks have already lost control over monetary policy and interest rates. Interest rates are now being driven by contracting bank credit, not by monetary policy. The point which is commonly missed is that contracting credit at a time when credit demand is still increasing inevitably leads to higher interest rates and bad debts.