Is This the Start of the Big One?

by Rick Ackerman

If there is reason for bears to be hopeful that today’s savage selling was the start of the Big One, it is AAPL’s dramatic trend failure from slightly above a 135.96 target on the long-term chart. Using the Hidden Pivot Method, that was the last rally target that can be extrapolated from the weekly chart. The clear implication is that even if the stock is going to come roaring back, it will take at least four to six weeks for it to base. Any less would be surprising, if not to say shocking, but we should not in any case underestimate the bold madness that has driven the rally since March 23.

I’ve tracked AAPL very closely on the theory that if you get the institutional world’s most popular stock right, you get the market right. However, I am shifting my focus to the U.S. dollar, which is in a so-far modest bounce from very major trendline support. If the dollar is changing direction following its nasty slide since March, than every other trend in motion since then is about to reverse as well.

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