by Daniel B. Klein
The American Institute for Economic Research
A powerful video viewed more than 1 million times has drawn intense Twitter activity but not among Twitter users with blue-check validation. Maybe the video is too powerful, too truthful.
The video, by Ivor Cummins, of Ireland, proves that “dry tinder” is a major factor in Covid mortality rates. The “dry tinder” metaphor is one of ready kindling for forest fires: If the country had few fires last year, it is primed for heavy fire this year. It’s not the kindest metaphor for the persons of human souls, but it is clarifying. A soft flu season last year means more “dry tinder” this year, and more Covid deaths.
The data is powerful. Dry tinder explains probably half or so of Sweden’s Covid mortality, relative to the other Nordics.