by James Rickards
I’ve argued recently that Joe Biden’s dramatic cognitive decline will force Democratic Party leadership to deny him the nomination and replace him with someone else. I stand by that. But today let’s just assume that Biden is the actual nominee. What’s the case for a Biden win in November?
The case for Biden begins with the dismal state of the economy. Only three presidents in the past 100 years have lost a reelection bid: Herbert Hoover in 1932, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H. W. Bush in 1992. What they had in common was a recession close to the election. All presidents who sought reelection and did not have a recession won.
Trump was in the “no recession” category and headed toward an easy reelection until last February when the pandemic hit. Now, Trump is in the same category as Hoover, Carter and Bush 41 and possibly headed toward a recession-related defeat.