Heads Trump Loses, Tails Trump Loses

by Karl Denninger

Well, here we go.

16 million jobs lost so far as of the report this morning; another 6m put on the tape today from the claims print.

Of course the claim continues to be made that “we had to do this or 2.2 million Americans would have died” — without evidence.

In fact, the “evidence” is proved fraudulent; the IHME model updated again yesterday, and again over-stated Florida’s requirement for actual beds by more than double the total number ever in use by a coronavirus patient — not just current bed occupancy, historical occupancy!

Mathematical models can be useful — but the initialization value for a given resource on the day the model runs cannot be wrong, or the model isn’t a model: It is a knowing and intentional fraud. This has been the hallmark of the IHME “model” since the beginning; not once has actual resource use on the day it has been run been anywhere near factual, and the “errors” have all been in one direction. Basic statistical analysis tells us that if an error is all one way it’s no a mistake — it is either worthless or worse, intentionally biased.

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