GDPNow Initial Estimate is Way Too Optimistic

by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
The Street

The initial estimate of the GDPNow Model for second-quarter GDP is -12.1%. That’s way too high.

The final GDPNow estimate for first-quarter GDP was -1.0%.

Yesterday, the BEA’s first estimate if first-quarter GDP was -4.8%, a huge miss for the model.

Looking ahead, the model is off to a bad start for the second quarter.

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