by John Rubino
Harry Dent, a newsletter publisher who uses demographic trends to forecast market movements, believes that even before covid-19 blindsided the global economy, the US housing market was toast. From one of his recent interviews:
Baby Boomers are now dying at unprecedented rates and will continue to do so into 2040. That takes the net demand for real estate negative, so homes are never going to appreciate even in the next boom. A lot of boomers are realizing they didn’t save for retirement because they’re living in good times and didn’t think they needed to, and now they’re saying wait a minute, I don’t need my McMansion now that my kids are gone. I can sell that and instantly fund my retirement plan and then rent my retirement home.
For the first time in all of modern history the next generation has fewer peak buyers for everything than the baby boom, and in many countries it’s significantly less. Real estate will never be the same.