The 15 Day Lie: Don’t Be Stupid

by Karl Denninger

Social Distancing — 15 days that make the difference.

So says the government.


[…] Here’s what you’re looking at.

The native R0 is 3.0. If everyone socially distances we don’t stop the virus, but we suppress the rate of growth. That suppression results in a temporary R0 of 2.0.

The “infected” rate is the R0 minus the percentage of infected and recovered (that is, R0 starts to burn out.)

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