Putting Some Numbers To This Mess

by Karl Denninger

Facts known:

1. Healthy young children have an effective death rate of zero.

2. Ordinary, healthy adults are at very low risk of having a serious, critical or fatal outcome. “Serious” is defined as “in hospital required.” “Critical” is defined as “ICU/Intubated/extraordinary measures.” Fatal is obvious.

3. Co-morbidities, or serious age (>65) dramatically raises the risk of bad outcomes — by a factor of ten, twenty or even a hundred.

This virus primarily attacks the lungs. It causes other symptoms but the bad outcomes occur when you are essentially asphyxiated. Those who have compromised pulmonary capacity (e.g. persons with COPD, diabetes with complications, old people with seriously compromised physical output capacity, asthmatics, etc) are at much higher risk.

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