by Karl Denninger
What did I say a few weeks ago, and re-iterated in a recent podcast?
I believe we are not in generation 10. We’re in generation 20.
The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
If the results are confirmed, they imply that fewer than one in a thousand of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment, said Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study. The vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
“We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys — antibody testing — to assess what stage of the epidemic we are in now,” she said.
Fewer than one in a thousand develop symptoms?
Again, only serological testing — that is, testing for antibodies, not the bug itself, will tell us with certainty.