by John Mauldin
In baseball, there is a kind of pitch called the “changeup,” designed to look like a fastball while actually going slower. The deceived batter swings too soon and misses. Strike, you’re out. The world has thrown a wicked biological changeup at the global economy.
This is kind of how coronavirus fear is spreading from China to the rest of the world and now the US. We think it’s coming fast. Many Americans have swung at the pitch by selling stocks, stocking up on food, cancelling travel plans, and so on. Those may prove to be wise choices. But in fact, the ball is still coming.
As of now, the medical data is a still evolving. What’s clear is we face an easily transmitted, flu-like virus. However, it’s more dangerous than the normal seasonal flu, particularly to the elderly and people with other health conditions. And it is spreading. The US appears to be a few weeks behind other countries where the situation is already much worse.