by Karl Denninger
The IG report, after reading through a good part of it, states that seventeen “errors” were made by the FBI.
May I remind you of an indisputable fact: Errors are randomly distributed.
That is, let’s assume you intend to drive at 40mph. If you make an error you will operate your car some of the time at 38mph, and some of the time at 42mph. The errors, if they are actual errors, will be randomly distributed around the correct action. Some of the errors will place you inside the correct action and some of them will be place you outside of the correct action. Approximately an equal number of errors will fall on each side of the correct action; some will help you, some hurt, but given enough errors there should be an approximately equal number in each direction.
If your speed, as measured at 1 minute intervals, is 40, 42, 45, 43, 41, 40, 46, 50, 42 and 45 mph that is not “error.” You are instead driving with a floor of 40mph; your intent is to drive at no slower than 40mph.