Tonight I would like to update some commodities charts we haven’t looked at in a while. There have been some subtle changes taking place that need to be addressed. Just like the PM complex that topped out in 2011 many commodities also topped out that same year and have been correcting ever since. With the US dollar at an important inflection point it may be time for commodities in general to show some relative strength which they haven’t done for a very long time.
Lets start with this very long term monthly combo chart which has the CRB index on top with the US dollar in the middle and gold on the bottom. Back in April of 2011 the CRB index topped out while the US dollar bottomed out exactly at the same time with gold topping out 5 months later in September. As you can see there is a mild correlation between the CRB and gold with their 2011 trendline both sloping down while the US dollar is sloping up.