by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk
Heading into the Christmas shopping season, the Cass Freight Index shows shipments sank 0.4% for the month and are down 3.1% from shipments a year ago.
It’s difficult to make a case for a great holiday sales season or robust third quarter GDP, based not only on shipments, but also on many other factors discussed below.
After offering a glimmer of ‘less bad’ hope in August (only down 1.1% YoY and up 0.4% sequentially), the Cass Freight Index shipments data in September disappointed, providing hindsight that August only gave us ‘false hope.’ September data is once again signaling that overall shipment volumes (and pricing) continued to be weak in most modes, with increased levels of volatility as all levels of the supply chain (manufacturing, wholesale, retail) continue to try and work down inventory levels.