New Way to Predict Election Chances: Spotlight on Florida

by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
Mish Talk

On Sunday, the New York Times introduced the NYT Upshot/Siena College Poll, a “new way” of conducting polls.

Upshot/Siena’s first poll was released yesterday, but first let’s dive into the methodology.

On Monday, The Upshot and Siena College will release their first survey of likely voters in Florida.

It’s a little different from most polls sponsored by major media organizations. Most such surveys contact voters by dialing random telephone numbers. The New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll was conducted using Florida records from a voter registration file, a data set covering every registered voter in the country. Our data set came from L2, a nonpartisan political data vendor.

Today, virtually all campaigns conduct their surveys off voter registration files.

Why hasn’t the media done the same thing?

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