by Mike ‘Mish’ Shedlock
In the wake of today’s durable goods report and last week’s housing reports the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model for third quarter GDP ticked down 0.1 percentage points to 2.8%.
Latest forecast: 2.8 percent — September 28, 2016
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 2.8 percent on September 28, down from 2.9 percent on September 20. The forecast of third-quarter real equipment investment growth fell from 1.5 percent to 0.8 percent after this morning’s advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of third-quarter real investment residential growth, which now stands at –8.9 percent, declined by 1.3 percentage points on both September 22 and September 26 following the release of housing data on those dates.